Statistical models accurately capture the trade-offs between strict COVID-19 lockdown measures and economic output
Multiple mathematical and system dynamics modeling studies demonstrate that quantitative frameworks can effectively estimate and balance the trade-offs between strict COVID-19 lockdown interventions and their economic impacts.
The retrieved literature contains multiple peer-reviewed studies explicitly focused on modeling the economic costs—such as GDP loss and lost wages—alongside epidemiological outcomes of strict interventions like lockdowns and social distancing, thereby supporting the claim.
Jung Eun Kim, Heejin Choi, Yongin Choi, Chang Hyeong Lee. The economic impact of COVID-19 interventions: A mathematical modeling approach. 2022. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.993745
Utilizes age-structured mathematical models to estimate actual costs of COVID-19, including medical care, lost wages, and GDP losses due to social distancing.
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Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Saksham Soni. THEMIS: A Framework for Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions. 2022. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.04.09.22273656
Develops a data-driven system dynamics framework (THEMIS) to compare the costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions across different cost dimensions.
Liu W, Zou G, Bao Q, Wang S. Optimal prevention and control strategy of infectious disease: Cost-effectiveness analysis based on a modified dynamic model with economic loss.. 2026. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2025.11.001
Proposes a modified SEIR dynamic model with economic cost and GDP loss coefficients to quantify economic losses and optimize prevention policies.
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