Global climate change causes tropical cyclones to form in previously unaffected areas
Multiple scientific studies confirm that global climate change is driving a poleward migration of tropical cyclones, causing them to form and track into higher-latitude areas that were previously less affected.
The claim is specific, empirical, and testable. Multiple peer-reviewed studies (indices 0, 1, 5, 6, 8, and 10) explicitly demonstrate both observed and projected poleward/northward shifts in tropical cyclone genesis and tracks due to global climate change, bringing storms into previously unaffected or less-affected regions. There are no refuting papers in the provided set.
Kaiyue Shan, Xiping Yu. Enhanced understanding of poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abaf85
Documents a documented global poleward migration of tropical cyclone genesis linked to climate-driven tropical expansion.
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Danlei Jian, Haikun Zhao, Philip J. Klotzbach, Graciela B. Raga, Jun Gao, Jian Cao, Chao Wang, Zhanhong Ma. Projected Poleward Migration of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110031
Shows that western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis has shifted poleward under warming and mega-ENSO influences.
Guo YP, Tan ZM. Enhanced global storm surges by tropical cyclone poleward migration.. 2026. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2535524123
Finds that tropical cyclone activity has expanded poleward globally, amplifying storm surges in mid-latitudes.
Adsul R, Singh VK, Parekh A, Gnanaseelan C. Near future projections of tropical cyclone tracks over the Bay of Bengal using high resolution CMIP6 models.. 2026. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-35482-w
Projects a northward shift in tropical cyclone tracks over the Bay of Bengal driven by large-scale wave dynamics.
Tu S, Deng Z, Zhong Q, Liang M, Xu J, Long J, Han L. Northwestward shifts in the locations of genesis reduce the lifetime of landfalling tropical cyclones in China.. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11996-7
Notes that northwestward and poleward shifts in genesis locations are bringing tropical cyclones into areas previously less affected, such as higher latitudes in China.
Jan Altman, Kirill Korznikov. Tropical cyclone migration mitigates the impact of climate change on cool-temperate and boreal forests. 2024. https://doi.org/10.22541/au.171241147.78606797/v1
Discusses the ecological consequences of tropical cyclones expanding into cool-temperate and boreal forests due to poleward migration.
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