Inflation can occur without any prior increase in the money supply
Inflation can be driven by non-monetary factors such as supply chain disruptions, energy price shocks, and corporate profit margins, demonstrating that inflation can occur independently of prior increases in the money supply.
The retrieved papers include studies examining recent inflation waves (such as those in Europe and developing nations) that were caused by energy price shocks, supply chain disruptions, and profit margins rather than money supply expansion, directly supporting the claim.
Markus Nabernegg, Steffen Lange, Thomas Kopp. Inflation in Germany: Energy Prices, Profit Shares, and Market Power in Different Sectors. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1080/08911916.2024.2429312
Paper [2] finds that recent high inflation in Germany was driven primarily by energy prices and corporate profit margins rather than monetary expansion alone.
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Marangoz C. Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies.. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e42302
Paper [3] demonstrates how geopolitical turmoil and energy price shocks generate inflationary trends in European economies.
Wiggins S, Ahmed BY, Akullo B, Barry B, Dudu J, Eronmhonsele J, Kiwala Y, Ogisi D, Onokerhoraye A, Opio J, Patel N, Sulieman H. Food prices and food crises since 2020: evidence from Mali, northeast Nigeria, Sudan, and northern Uganda.. 2026. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.70037
Paper [4] shows that domestic factors such as failed harvests and conflict caused substantial food price inflation rather than global monetary changes.
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