Previous researchers failed to detect the hot hand due to a statistical fallacy

the verdict

SUPPORTED

the evidence backs this

Recorded sources

2 sources for · 0 against

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AS REPORTEDno primary record reached; this is what the reporting says

Evidence indicates that initial failures to detect the hot hand phenomenon were partly due to statistical or methodological biases in earlier studies, which later research has addressed.

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Evidence for · 2

Wikipedia: Hot hand

Recorded source metadata

Wikipedia: Hot hand. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_hand

Reference article covering this claim directly

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More for · 1

papers.ssrn.com: Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Recorded source metadata

papers.ssrn.com: Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers. papers.ssrn.com. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2627354

Points to work by Miller and Sanjurjo regarding statistical biases in detecting the hot hand fallacy.

Source citation format

The paper trail · every fact has a biography

first checked01 Aug 2026

judged → SUPPORTED · 7501 Aug 2026

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