The Gulf Stream is unstable and could stop suddenly.

Stefan Rahmstorf. Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation approaching a tipping point?. 2025. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-22395

It reviews ongoing weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and highlights the risk of abrupt circulation and climate shifts.

Oh JH, Kug JS, Shin Y, Geng X, Wang S, Jin FF, An SI, Xie SP, Liu W. Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios.. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66494-1

This study demonstrates that internal atmospheric variability can push the AMOC across its stability threshold, triggering a collapse.

Boot AA, Dijkstra HA. The effect of freshwater biases on AMOC stability across the model complexity spectrum. 2025. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8208950/v1

The authors suggest that current models may underestimate the probability of an AMOC collapse under future emission scenarios due to freshwater biases.

Arellano-Nava B, Lenton TM, Boulton CA, Holmes S, Scourse J, Butler PG, Reynolds DJ, Trofimova T, Poitevin P, Román-González A, Halloran PR. Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves.. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adw3468

Reconstructions show recent destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic, indicating the system is moving toward a tipping point.

Paul Edwin Curtis, Alexey Fedorov. The Tipping Points of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Warm and Cold Climates. 2023. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9907

General circulation model experiments show rapid reduction or full collapse of the AMOC in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases.