The United States stock market tends to rise following major natural disasters.

the verdict

REFUTED

the evidence says no

Recorded sources

0 sources for · 3 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Empirical evidence indicates that major natural disasters do not cause the stock market to rise; rather, studies consistently find that extreme weather events and natural disasters either depress stock returns or have no statistically significant positive impact.

The analysis

The claim states that the United States stock market tends to rise following major natural disasters. None of the provided papers support the idea that markets systematically rise after disasters. Instead, multiple empirical studies (e.g., papers 1, 5, and 9) show that natural disasters either trigger negative stock market reactions, reduce stock values, or yield no abnormal returns. Therefore, the claim is refuted by the available evidence.

Evidence against · 3

Investigating the Effects of Natural Disasters on the Stock Market on a Sectoral Basis: The Case of 2023 Kahramanmaraş/Türkiye Earthquake

Recorded source metadata

Hilmi Tunahan Akkus, Varol Kişlalioğlu. Investigating the Effects of Natural Disasters on the Stock Market on a Sectoral Basis: The Case of 2023 Kahramanmaraş/Türkiye Earthquake. 2023. https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1296562

This study finds no statistically significant difference in stock returns before and after major earthquakes, showing that disasters do not systematically cause markets to rise.

Source citation format

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More against · 2

Physical climate risk: Stock price reactions to the historically most extreme European and United States heat waves since 1979.

Recorded source metadata

Schuster M, Krüger J, Lueg R. Physical climate risk: Stock price reactions to the historically most extreme European and United States heat waves since 1979.. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0318166

This research shows that extreme heat waves reduce stock values rather than boosting them, leading to portfolio declines of up to 3.1%.

Source citation format

Chinese Stock Market Performance and Natural Disasters

Recorded source metadata

W. Boungou, Melchisédek Joslem Ngambou Djatche, Nicholas Biekpe. Chinese Stock Market Performance and Natural Disasters. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527251318132

This study highlights a negative association between natural disasters and stock market returns, demonstrating that disasters reduce company stock performance.

Source citation format

The paper trail · every fact has a biography

first checked01 Aug 2026

judged → REFUTED · 701 Aug 2026

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