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the claim

Non-human animals demonstrate probabilistic thinking capabilities

the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
Recorded sources
4 sources for · 0 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Multiple comparative studies demonstrate that non-human animals, such as primates and rodents, engage in probabilistic decision-making and exhibit choice behaviors under uncertainty that closely mirror human patterns.

The analysis

The retrieved papers provide robust experimental evidence that non-human animals (rodents and primates) can be successfully tested using animal adaptations of tasks like the Iowa Gambling Task, demonstrating that they make choices based on probabilistic cost-benefit and uncertainty assessments. No papers refute the claim.

Evidence for · 4
Recorded source metadata

C. Winstanley, S. Floresco. Deciphering Decision Making: Variation in Animal Models of Effort- and Uncertainty-Based Choice Reveals Distinct Neural Circuitries Underlying Core Cognitive Processes. 2016. https://doi.org/10.1523/JNEUROSCI.1713-16.2016

Paper 0 discusses behavioral paradigms designed for non-human laboratory animals to test decision-making under uncertainty.

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More for · 3
Recorded source metadata

F. De Petrillo, A. Rosati. Variation in primate decision-making under uncertainty and the roots of human economic behaviour. 2021. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0671

Paper 1 reviews comparative research on decision-making under risk and uncertainty across non-human primates to evaluate behavioral mechanisms.

Recorded source metadata

Lidia Cabeza, Julie Giustiniani, Thibault Chabin, Bahrie Ramadan, Coralie Joucla, M. Nicolier, L. Pazart, E. Haffen, D. Fellmann, D. Gabriel, Y. Peterschmitt. Modelling decision-making under uncertainty: A direct comparison study between human and mouse gambling data.. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroneuro.2019.11.005

Paper 3 directly compares decision-making performance under probabilistic reward contingencies between humans and mice, showing closely matching patterns.

Recorded source metadata

Lidia Cabeza, Julie Giustiniani, Thibault Chabin, Bahrie Ramadan, Coralie Joucla, M. Nicolier, L. Pazart, E. Haffen, D. Fellmann, D. Gabriel, Y. Peterschmitt. Modeling decision-making under uncertainty: a direct comparison study between human and mouse gambling data. 2019. https://doi.org/10.1101/570499

Paper 4 confirms similar physiological decision-making performances and probabilistic choice behaviors between mice and humans.

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first checked01 Aug 2026
judged → SUPPORTED · 8801 Aug 2026
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