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the claim

Pfizer and Moderna vaccine effectiveness against Omicron becomes negative after three months.

the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
0 sources for · 3 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Evidence shows that while vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron variant wanes over time, it decreases to lower positive levels rather than becoming negative after three months.

The analysis

The claim states that Pfizer and Moderna vaccine effectiveness against Omicron becomes negative after three months. The retrieved literature clearly indicates waning immunity over time, but multiple studies (such as Papers [1], [4], and [6]) show that effectiveness estimates remain positive (above zero) rather than dropping into negative values. Therefore, the claim is refuted by the scientific evidence.

Evidence against · 3
Recorded source metadata

T. Arashiro, Y. Arima, Hirokazu Muraoka, Akihiro Sato, Kunihiro Oba, Yukie Uehara, H. Arioka, H. Yanai, Jin Kuramochi, G. Ihara, Kumi Chubachi, Naoki Yanagisawa, Yoshito Nagura, Y. Kato, Akihiro Ueda, Akira Numata, Hideaki Kato, Koji Ishii, Takao Ooki, H. Oka, Yusuke Nishida, Ashley Stucky, Chris Smith, M. Hibberd, K. Ariyoshi, Motoi Suzuki. Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) Vaccine Effectiveness Against Symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection During Delta-Dominant and Omicron-Dominant Periods in Japan: A Multicenter Prospective Case-control Study (Factors Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Infection a. 2022. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciac635

Paper [1] found that vaccine effectiveness against Omicron remained positive (ranging from 49% to 56% depending on the time interval) even at 6 months or more after the second dose.

See more details
More against · 2
Recorded source metadata

J. Nealon, Yonatan M Mefsin, Martina McMenamin, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, B. Cowling. Reported effectiveness of COVID-19 monovalent booster vaccines and hybrid immunity against mild and severe Omicron disease in adults: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvacx.2024.100451

Paper [4] demonstrated in a meta-regression analysis that while vaccine effectiveness waned over time against the Omicron variant, it remained positive rather than dropping below zero.

Recorded source metadata

Tal Patalon, Yaki Saciuk, Asaf Peretz, Galit Perez, Yoav Lurie, Yasmin Maor, Sivan Gazit. Waning Effectiveness of the Third Dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine. 2022. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.25.22271494

Paper [6] specifically examined the BNT162b2 booster dose against Omicron at three months post-vaccination and reported a positive relative protection value of 16.5% rather than a negative effectiveness.

The paper trail · every fact has a biography
first checked31 Jul 2026
judged → REFUTED · 1131 Jul 2026
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