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the claim
Solar storm trajectories and arrival directions at Earth can be predicted using solar observation data
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
7 sources for · 0 against

Multiple studies demonstrate that solar observation data—including coronagraph images, heliospheric imagers, and interplanetary scintillation measurements—can be used alongside predictive models to forecast the trajectories and arrival times of solar storms at Earth.

Evidence for · 7
2014 · cited by 148
The study demonstrates that single heliospheric imager data from the Sun can predict coronal mass ejection speeds and arrival times at Earth.
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The analysis

The retrieved literature consistently supports the claim that solar observation data (such as coronagraphs, white-light images, heliospheric imagers, and interplanetary scintillation measurements) are successfully utilized in various models (MHD simulations, drag-based models, geometric models) to predict the trajectories, speeds, and arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth. All relevant papers on the topic confirm this capability, making the verdict SUPPORTED with zero papers in opposition.

More for · 6
2004 · cited by 82
The paper evaluates models that utilize solar observation data to predict interplanetary coronal mass ejection transit times between the Sun and Earth.
2019 · cited by 29
The research shows that incorporating solar observation data such as interplanetary scintillation into global MHD simulations improves the prediction of CME arrival times at Earth.
2021 · cited by 23
The study utilizes white light solar images and kinematic models to correct projection effects and successfully predict CME time of arrival at Earth.
2023 · cited by 8
The work shows that remotely sensed interplanetary scintillation data and 3D analysis techniques can successfully forecast plasma parameters and CME arrival at Earth.
2021 · cited by 2
The review details how multi-viewpoint space observations and drag-based kinematic models enable the prediction of CME propagation and arrival times at 1 AU.
Real-time prediction of two geomagnetic storms using Solar Orbiter as a far upstream solar wind monitor
2025 · cited by 2
The study demonstrates that upstream solar observations and far-upstream monitors successfully predict CME arrival times and geomagnetic impacts at Earth.
Everything we examined (12)
We also searched for evidence AGAINST this claim, not only for it.
  1. CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AUpeer-reviewedsupports
  2. Predictions of the arrival time of Coronal Mass Ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errorspeer-reviewedsupports
  3. Eddy viscosity and flow properties of the solar wind: Co-rotating interaction regions, coronal-mass-ejection sheaths, and solar-wind/magnetosphere couplingpeer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  4. Development of a coronal mass ejection arrival time forecasting system using interplanetary scintillation observationspeer-reviewedsupports
  5. Assessing the Projection Correction of Coronal Mass Ejection Speeds on Time‐of‐Arrival Prediction Performance Using the Effective Acceleration Modelpeer-reviewedsupports
  6. Unveiling the Interplanetary Solar Radio Bursts of the 2024 Mother’s Day Solar Stormpeer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  7. Application of Novel Interplanetary Scintillation Visualisations using LOFAR: A Case Study of Merged CMEs from September 2017peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  8. Forecasting Heliospheric CME Solar-Wind Parameters Using the UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography and ISEE Interplanetary Scintillation Data: The 10 March 2022 CMEpeer-reviewedsupports
  9. Multi‐Source Forecast of Solar Cycle Flare Activity Using the Novel Informer‐Based Modelspeer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  10. Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24.peer-reviewedsupports
  11. Real-time prediction of two geomagnetic storms using Solar Orbiter as a far upstream solar wind monitorpeer-reviewedsupports
  12. Observations of a Solar Energetic Particle Event From Inside and Outside the Coma of Comet 67P.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
The paper trail · every fact has a biography
first checked06 Aug 2026
judged → SUPPORTED · 8806 Aug 2026
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