Solar storm trajectories and arrival directions at Earth can be predicted using solar observation data
Is it true that solar storm trajectories and arrival directions at Earth can be predicted using solar observation data?
Yes. Multiple studies demonstrate that solar observation data—including coronagraph images, heliospheric imagers, and interplanetary scintillation measurements—can be used alongside predictive models to forecast the trajectories and arrival times of solar storms at Earth.
Verdict: SUPPORTED · 7 sources for, 0 against · Last checked
The retrieved literature consistently supports the claim that solar observation data (such as coronagraphs, white-light images, heliospheric imagers, and interplanetary scintillation measurements) are successfully utilized in various models (MHD simulations, drag-based models, geometric models) to predict the trajectories, speeds, and arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth. All relevant papers on the topic confirm this capability, making the verdict SUPPORTED with zero papers in opposition.
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Mostl, C., Amla, K., Hall, J., Liewer, P., Jong, E. D., Colaninno, R., Veronig, A., Rollett, T., Temmer, M., Peinhart, V., Davies, J., Lugaz, N., Liu, Y., Farrugia, C., Luhmann, J., Vrvsnak, B., Harrison, R., & Galvin, A. (2014). CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/787/2/119
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Owens, M. & Cargill, P. (2004). Predictions of the arrival time of Coronal Mass Ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.5194/ANGEO-22-661-2004
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Iwai, K., Shiota, D., Tokumaru, M., Fujiki, K., Den, M., & Kubo, Y. (2019). Development of a coronal mass ejection arrival time forecasting system using interplanetary scintillation observations. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-019-1019-5
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Paouris, E., Vourlidas, A., Papaioannou, A., & Anastasiadis, A. (2021). Assessing the Projection Correction of Coronal Mass Ejection Speeds on Time‐of‐Arrival Prediction Performance Using the Effective Acceleration Model. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020sw002617
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Jackson, B., Tokumaru, M., Iwai, K., Bracamontes, M., Buffington, A., Fujiki, K., Murakami, G., Heyner, D., Sánchez–Cano, B., Rojo, M., Aizawa, S., André, N., Barthe, A., Penou, E., Fedorov, A., Sauvaud, J., Yokota, S., & Saito, Y. (2023). Forecasting Heliospheric CME Solar-Wind Parameters Using the UCSD Time-Dependent Tomography and ISEE Interplanetary Scintillation Data: The 10 March 2022 CME. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-023-02169-8
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J, Z., M, T., N, G., O, M., NV, N., S, P., F, S., B, V., Y, W., D, W., MI, D., K, D., N, D., M, D., X, F., SG, H., M, L., N, L., & B, Z. (2021). Earth-affecting solar transients: a review of progresses in solar cycle 24.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-021-00426-7
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Davies, E., Weiler, E., Mostl, C., Majumdar, S., Rudisser, H. T., Horbury, T., O’Brien, H., Morris, J., Office, A. C. A. S. W., Austria, G., Graz, Austria, M., Physics, I. o. R., Graz, U., Laboratory, B., London, I. -., Campus, S., London, & Uk (2025). Real-time prediction of two geomagnetic storms using Solar Orbiter as a far upstream solar wind monitor..
What does the evidence say?
The retrieved literature consistently supports the claim that solar observation data (such as coronagraphs, white-light images, heliospheric imagers, and interplanetary scintillation measurements) are successfully utilized in various models (MHD simulations, drag-based models, geometric models) to predict the trajectories, speeds, and arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth. All relevant papers on the topic confirm this capability, making the verdict SUPPORTED with zero papers in opposition.
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