Physical upper bounds limit the maximum possible magnitude of an earthquake
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 85/100
Geophysical studies and seismic hazard models consistently treat earthquake magnitudes as subject to upper bounds, often represented by truncated magnitude-frequency distributions constrained by fault geometry and crustal mechanics.
Evidence for · 5
Estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude using extreme value methodology: the Groningen case
2017 · cited by 38
Paper [0] discusses estimating the area-characteristic maximum possible earthquake magnitude using extreme value methodology and truncated exponential distributions.
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More for · 4
Can we test for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude?
2014 · cited by 22
Paper [1] explores the concept of an upper truncation or maximum possible earthquake magnitude in regional earthquake catalogs.
Reflections and Some Questions about Assessing the Maximum Possible Earthquake in the Long-Exploited Groningen Gas Field
2023 · cited by 5
Paper [2] reviews the expert assessment and estimation of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude induced by gas extraction.
Bayesian Assessment of the Maximum Possible Earthquake Magnitude <i>m</i>
<i>max</i>
2025 · cited by 4
Paper [3] focuses on the Bayesian assessment of the regional maximum possible earthquake magnitude using geophysical and geological constraints.
Large-magnitude events unlikely in induced earthquake sequences.
2026 · cited by 0
Paper [5] indicates that physical factors such as heterogeneous loading and disorganized fault networks limit the growth and maximum size of large ruptures.