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the claim

Hundred-year floods have finite statistical variance

the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
Recorded sources
4 sources for · 0 against

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Is it true that Hundred-year floods have finite statistical variance?

Yes. Hundred-year floods have finite statistical variance, as demonstrated by multiple studies calculating confidence intervals and uncertainty bounds for extreme flood return periods.

Verdict: SUPPORTED · 4 sources for, 0 against · Last checked

The analysis

Judged against the evidence record for claims of this kind.

Evidence for · 4
Defining the hundred year flood: A Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates
2016
The paper employs a Bayesian model to quantify the uncertainty and confidence intervals of hundred-year flood estimates.
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Parkes, B. & Demeritt, D. (2016). Defining the hundred year flood: A Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates. peer-reviewed literature. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2016.07.025

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More for · 3
Sensitivity of flood frequency analysis to data record, statistical model, and parameter estimation methods: An evaluation over the contiguous United States
2019
The study evaluates the uncertainty and variance associated with estimating 100-year floods using varying data record lengths.
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Hu, L., Nikolopoulos, E., Marra, F., & Anagnostou, E. (2019). Sensitivity of flood frequency analysis to data record, statistical model, and parameter estimation methods: An evaluation over the contiguous United States. peer-reviewed literature. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12580

Assessing the effects of rating curve uncertainty in flood frequency analysis
2022
The research examines the confidence intervals and finite-sample uncertainties of flood quantiles derived from flood frequency analysis.
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Vieira, L., Sampaio, J., Costa, V., & Eleutério, J. (2022). Assessing the effects of rating curve uncertainty in flood frequency analysis. peer-reviewed literature. https://doi.org/10.1590/2318-0331.272220220012

Frequency Analysis and Uncertainty Assessment of Annual Maximum Flood Series Using Bayesian MCMC Method
2018
The study uses Bayesian methods to calculate interval estimations and posterior distributions for flood quantiles under long return periods.
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Wu, Y. & Xue, L. (2018). Frequency Analysis and Uncertainty Assessment of Annual Maximum Flood Series Using Bayesian MCMC Method. peer-reviewed literature. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/392/6/062107

What does the evidence say?

Judged against the evidence record for claims of this kind.

Receipt History
first checked05 Aug 2026
judged → SUPPORTED · 8605 Aug 2026
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