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the claim

Global surface temperatures have not shown significant warming since the late 1990s

the verdict
CONTESTED
contested - the weight sits with the supporting side
Recorded sources
7 sources for · 3 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that global surface temperatures have not shown significant warming since the late 1990s?

Partly. While multiple studies confirm that surface temperature trends experienced a temporary slowdown or hiatus in the late 1990s and 2000s, other research demonstrates that this plateau represents natural multidecadal variability and internal heat redistribution rather than an interruption of long-term global warming.

Verdict: CONTESTED · 7 sources for, 3 against · Last checked

The analysis

The retrieved papers widely acknowledge the observation of a post-1990s surface temperature slowdown (often referred to as the hiatus), supporting the premise that surface warming rates flattened during that specific window. However, the literature simultaneously emphasizes that this phenomenon was a temporary surface manifestation driven by natural variability, ocean heat uptake, and internal oscillations, while underlying planetary warming and energy accumulation continued. Because the physical reality of a surface temperature slowdown is acknowledged alongside strong evidence that it does not refute ongoing climate warming, the balance of evidence reflects a nuanced scientific debate over how to define and interpret this period, warranting a CONTESTED verdict.

The evidence we hold leans leans supported

How this was weighed

official record 3x · fact-check 2x · hedged 1x · crowd & reference 1x

  • Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the r · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.3 · 2018
  • The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution? · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.3 · 2016
  • A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Ye · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.3 · 2015
  • The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent wa · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.3 · 2015
  • Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature tren · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.3 · 2015
  • The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiat · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.05 · 2018
  • Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition t · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.05 · 2021
  • On the definition and identifiability of the alleged "hiatus · peer-reviewed · refutes · weight 1.3 · 2015
  • A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously · peer-reviewed · refutes · weight 1.3 · 2018
  • Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth's Energy Imbala · peer-reviewed · refutes · weight 1.3 · 2024
Evidence for · 7
Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.
2018
The paper discusses the levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s as a global warming slowdown or hiatus.
Get citation
NC, J., SP, X., Y, K., & X, L. (2018). Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04040-y

Evidence against · 3
On the definition and identifiability of the alleged "hiatus" in global warming.
2015
It states that multiple sources of evidence show climate change continues unabated, meaning the purported hiatus trends fall within normal historical variations.
Get citation
S, L., JS, R., & N, O. (2015). On the definition and identifiability of the alleged "hiatus" in global warming.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16784

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More for · 6
The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?
2016
It acknowledges that global mean surface temperatures exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013.
Get citation
XH, Y., T, B., K, T., TR, K., SP, X., V, N., V, N., KK, T., & D, R. (2016). The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000417

A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature*
2015
It analyzes the recent global warming hiatus and notes that multidecadal variability has driven historical surface temperature pauses.
Get citation
Wei, M., Qiao, F., & Deng, J. (2015). A Quantitative Definition of Global Warming Hiatus and 50-Year Prediction of Global-Mean Surface Temperature*. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-14-0296.1

The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.
2015
It examines the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature since the late 1990s.
Get citation
X, G., J, H., R, G., & P, L. (2015). The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12669

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming
2015
It notes that the global mean surface temperature trend experienced a recent hiatus related to natural long-term oscillations.
Get citation
Lin, Y. & Franzke, C. L. E. (2015). Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep12971

The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained
2018
It explains the main features of the 1998-2015 hiatus period using a linear response model.
Get citation
Rypdal, K. (2018). The Life and Death of the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030064

Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes.
2021
It notes that since the 1990s, rapid warming of the Arctic was accompanied by no-warming or cooling over midlatitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Get citation
F, E., D, K., & P, P. (2021). Spatial variations in the warming trend and the transition to more severe weather in midlatitudes.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80701-7

More against · 2
A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend.
2018
It notes that a probabilistic forecast model predicts a warmer period reinforcing the long-term warming trend following the post-1998 hiatus.
Get citation
F, S. & SS, D. (2018). A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05442-8

Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth's Energy Imbalance Since 2000.
2024
It observes a steady acceleration of climate warming based on Earth's energy imbalance data across the periods spanning the hiatus.
Get citation
NG, L., SH, H., RP, A., TJ, T., B, M., S, K., GC, J., & JM, L. (2024). Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth's Energy Imbalance Since 2000.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-024-09838-8

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What does the evidence say?

The retrieved papers widely acknowledge the observation of a post-1990s surface temperature slowdown (often referred to as the hiatus), supporting the premise that surface warming rates flattened during that specific window. However, the literature simultaneously emphasizes that this phenomenon was a temporary surface manifestation driven by natural variability, ocean heat uptake, and internal oscillations, while underlying planetary warming and energy accumulation continued. Because the physical reality of a surface temperature slowdown is acknowledged alongside strong evidence that it does not refute ongoing climate warming, the balance of evidence reflects a nuanced scientific debate over how to define and interpret this period, warranting a CONTESTED verdict.

Receipt History
first checked04 Aug 2026
judged → CONTESTED · 3504 Aug 2026
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