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the claim

All probability is fundamentally subjective.

the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
1 source for · 4 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that all probability is fundamentally subjective?

No. While subjective interpretations of probability exist (such as Bayesian probability), standard philosophical frameworks and physical theories also recognize objective forms of probability, such as frequentist, propensity, and quantum statistical probabilities. Therefore, not all probability is fundamentally subjective.

Verdict: REFUTED · 1 source for, 4 against · Last checked

The analysis

Judged against the evidence record for claims of this kind.

Evidence for · 1
OpenAIRE: The Construction of Probability
2025
Argues that probability rests on a fundamentally subjective and arbitrary basis, though it focuses on the constructive foundations of problem formulation.
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OpenAIRE: The Construction of Probability. (2025). OpenAIRE. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15786609

Evidence against · 4
Wikipedia: Probability
Reference article covering this claim directly
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Wikipedia: Probability. (n.d.). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

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More against · 3
Entropy: What Does the Operator Algebra of Quantum Statistics Tell Us about the Objective Causes of Observable Effects?
2020
States that quantum predictions originate from an operator algebra fundamentally different from subjective probability, establishing objective probability types.
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Hofmann, H. F. (2020). Entropy: What Does the Operator Algebra of Quantum Statistics Tell Us about the Objective Causes of Observable Effects?. Entropy. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22060638

OpenAIRE: On Paul Davidson’s Critique of Rational Expectations: Aiming at the Wrong Target Using the Wrong Theoretical Construct for the Wrong Reasons
2019
Discusses various classical, logical, propensity, and frequency theories of probability alongside subjective interpretations, denying the claim that all probability is subjective.
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OpenAIRE: On Paul Davidson’s Critique of Rational Expectations: Aiming at the Wrong Target Using the Wrong Theoretical Construct for the Wrong Reasons. (2019). OpenAIRE. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3313222

OpenAIRE: Unscrambling Subjective and Epistemic Probabilities
2020
Argues for bona fide examples of objective probabilities and distinguishes between objective and subjective interpretations.
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OpenAIRE: Unscrambling Subjective and Epistemic Probabilities. (2020). OpenAIRE. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-34316-3_3

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Receipt History
first checked06 Aug 2026
judged → REFUTED · 206 Aug 2026
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