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the claim
Scientists can predict earthquakes in advance with accurate timing and location.
the verdict
INSUFFICIENT LEANING
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0 sources for · 6 against
Is it true that scientists can predict earthquakes in advance with accurate timing and location?
Unclear. Peer-reviewed sources indicate earthquake prediction remains unsuccessful: Japan's national program ran since 1965 without success, and machine-learning work is limited to laboratory-scale or partial forecasting. No retrieved source demonstrates accurate advance prediction of earthquake timing and location.
Verdict: PARTIAL LEAN · 0 sources for, 6 against · Last checked
Evidence against · 6
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Sol, A. & Turan, H. (2004). The ethics of earthquake prediction.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11948-004-0045-1
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More against · 5
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Uyeda, S. (2013). On earthquake prediction in Japan.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.89.391
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Jain, E. (2026). Predquake: A Deep Learning Algorithm to Predict The Time and Location of Earthquakes. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.36227/techrxiv.177220566.63029668/v1
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R, N., Y, K., & B, R. (2025). Machine learning predicts meter-scale laboratory earthquakes.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64542-4
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D, L., R, N., P, R., MW, M., A, P., N, N., & NB, E. (2025). Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65435-2
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N, B., O, Z., O, G., Y, M., & Y, B. (2026). Earthquake magnitudes depend on seismic history, as revealed by a neural network analysis.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-48563-7
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