The certainty effect makes people prefer sure outcomes over probable ones.

the verdict

SUPPORTED

the evidence backs this

Recorded sources

2 sources for · 0 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that the certainty effect makes people prefer sure outcomes over probable ones?

Yes. Two reference sources define the certainty effect as people favoring certain outcomes over merely probable ones, with one citing Tversky and Kahneman's prospect theory example where most participants chose a sure gain over a larger probable gain.

Verdict: SUPPORTED · 2 sources for, 0 against · Last checked 18 Oct 2026

The private library was unavailable for some searches in this check. Missing library results are not evidence against the claim.

Evidence for · 2

Certainty effect

Get citation

Certainty effect. (n.d.). en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certainty_effect

See more details

More for · 1

certainty effect | Wex | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute

Get citation

certainty effect | Wex | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute. (n.d.). law.cornell.edu. https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/certainty_effect

Receipt History

Anyone with this link can read the claim and its public receipt, including any personal information in that text. Open permanent receipt.

Check your own claim

Challenge the receipt

I have a source that contradicts this verdict I have a source that supports it No source: request a receipt review Requests are recorded for review. This does not start an automatic check or guarantee a response time.

Citation formatting by citeproc-js (Frank Bennett) and the Citation Style Language project. Source and licenses.

This receipt is an automated verdict against our published method · not an opinion about any author or publication.
Terms · Privacy · How verdicts work