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the claim

The ambiguity effect is the tendency for people to avoid options when the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown.

the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
Recorded sources
9 sources for · 0 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that the ambiguity effect is the tendency for people to avoid options when the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown?

Yes. The retrieved literature consistently supports the definition of the ambiguity effect, demonstrating that individuals generally tend to avoid options involving unknown outcome probabilities.

Verdict: SUPPORTED · 9 sources for, 0 against · Last checked

The analysis

The retrieved papers uniformly corroborate the classical definition and presence of the ambiguity effect—the tendency to avoid choices involving unknown probability distributions (ambiguity aversion). Multiple studies (e.g., [0], [3], [10]) explicitly describe and build upon this behavioral tendency using Ellsberg tasks or decision-making paradigms under uncertainty. None of the papers refute the core definition; therefore, the claim is well-supported.

Evidence for · 9
Overcoming Ambiguity Aversion Through Experience
2014
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Güney, Ş. & Newell, B. R. (2014). Overcoming Ambiguity Aversion Through Experience. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1840

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More for · 8
Impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion
2011
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Liu, H. (2011). Impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.702

Neural correlates of reward valuation in individuals with nonsuicidal self-injury under uncertainty.
2024
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JO, L., H, M., SM, Z., E, J., & JW, H. (2024). Neural correlates of reward valuation in individuals with nonsuicidal self-injury under uncertainty.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033291724001363

Risk behind the veil of ambiguity: Decision-making under social and nonsocial sources of uncertainty.
2025
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N, L., JA, A., & JB, G. (2025). Risk behind the veil of ambiguity: Decision-making under social and nonsocial sources of uncertainty.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70081

Task formats and ambiguity aversion
2011
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Liu, H. (2011). Task formats and ambiguity aversion. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.696

Negative news exposure does not affect risk or ambiguity aversion.
2025
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LS, G. C. & KM, L. (2025). Negative news exposure does not affect risk or ambiguity aversion.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2025.1485346

Integrative and syntactic complexity's role in decision-making under uncertainty.
2024
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AM, C., E, M., I, M., PM, C., F, S., & L, S. (2024). Integrative and syntactic complexity's role in decision-making under uncertainty.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1450703

Pupil and Neural Dynamics Reveal Belief-Dependent Decision Making Under Ambiguity
2026
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Y, Q., N, R., N, L., & P, S. (2026). Pupil and Neural Dynamics Reveal Belief-Dependent Decision Making Under Ambiguity. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.64898/2026.04.21.719818

Resistance to a Novel Clinical Trial Design for Multicancer Detection Tests: Experimental Investigation of Ambiguity Aversion.
2026
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JA, R., JB, P., RP, M., WMP, K., PE, C., & PKJ, H. (2026). Resistance to a Novel Clinical Trial Design for Multicancer Detection Tests: Experimental Investigation of Ambiguity Aversion.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1177/23814683261477027

What does the evidence say?

The retrieved papers uniformly corroborate the classical definition and presence of the ambiguity effect—the tendency to avoid choices involving unknown probability distributions (ambiguity aversion). Multiple studies (e.g., [0], [3], [10]) explicitly describe and build upon this behavioral tendency using Ellsberg tasks or decision-making paradigms under uncertainty. None of the papers refute the core definition; therefore, the claim is well-supported.

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