trustmebro.to/r/…
✓ checked
trust me, bro:
here is the receipt.
the claim

The probability that a coin toss will come up tails increases if the last three tosses were heads.

the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
0 sources for · 2 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that the probability that a coin toss will come up tails increases if the last three tosses were heads?

No. The claim is refuted by the principles of probability and independent trials (the gambler's fallacy): past coin tosses do not influence the probability of future independent flips, which remain 50/50 for a fair coin regardless of recent streaks.

Verdict: REFUTED · 0 sources for, 2 against · Last checked

Evidence against · 2
Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns
2010
Get citation
Sun, Y. & Wang, H. (2010). Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1017/s193029750000098x

See more details
More against · 1
Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler's Fallacy Reasoning.
2023
Get citation
K, R. & R, H. (2023). Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler's Fallacy Reasoning.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.13211

Receipt History
Anyone with this link can read the claim and its public receipt, including any personal information in that text. Open permanent receipt.
Check your own claim
Challenge the receipt
Requests are recorded for review. This does not start an automatic check or guarantee a response time.

See the evidence timeline

Citation formatting by citeproc-js (Frank Bennett) and the Citation Style Language project. Source and licenses.

This receipt is an automated verdict against our published method · not an opinion about any author or publication.
Terms · Privacy · How verdicts work