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the claim

If the deaths of N individuals are randomly distributed throughout the year, then if N is greater than or equal to 23, the probability exceeds 50% that at least two deaths will occur on the same day.

the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
Recorded sources
2 sources for · 0 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that if the deaths of N individuals are randomly distributed throughout the year, then if N is greater than or equal to 23, the probability exceeds 50% that at least two deaths will occur on the same day?

Yes. This is a direct application of the birthday problem: just as with 23 people sharing birthdays, a group of 23 or more randomly distributed deaths throughout the year has greater than a 50% chance of sharing a calendar day.

Verdict: SUPPORTED · 2 sources for, 0 against · Last checked

The analysis

Judged against statistical and reference sources.

Evidence for · 2
Wikipedia: Birthday problem
Reference article covering this claim directly
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Wikipedia: Birthday problem. (n.d.). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

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More for · 1
PLOS (all journals): The quantitative measure and statistical distribution of fame
Explicitly applies the birthday problem to deaths, matching the claim word-for-word.
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PLOS (all journals): The quantitative measure and statistical distribution of fame. (n.d.). PLOS (all journals). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200196

What does the evidence say?

Judged against statistical and reference sources.

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