The San Andreas Fault is overdue for a major earthquake.

the verdict

INSUFFICIENT LEANING

Recorded sources

7 sources for · 0 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that the San Andreas Fault is overdue for a major earthquake?

Unclear. Several sources describe the southern San Andreas, especially the Coachella section, as having accumulated strain and being possibly overdue, and one 1985 study explicitly raises the 'overdue' possibility while offering a longer alternative recurrence interval. All of these are hedged or limited to particular segments, so the evidence only partially supports the general claim.

Verdict: PARTIAL LEAN · 7 sources for, 0 against · Last checked 17 Oct 2026

Evidence for · 7

San Andreas Fault

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San Andreas Fault. (n.d.). en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault

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More for · 6

Short-term earthquake hazard assessment for the San Andreas Fault in southern California

1991

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M., J. L., Kerry, S., & Duncan, A. (1991). Short-term earthquake hazard assessment for the San Andreas Fault in southern California. authors.library.caltech.edu. https://authors.library.caltech.edu/records/r74hf-x7r36

Change in Failure Stress on the Southern San Andreas Fault System Caused by the 1992 Magnitude = 7.4 Landers Earthquake

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Change in Failure Stress on the Southern San Andreas Fault System Caused by the 1992 Magnitude = 7.4 Landers Earthquake. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.258.5086.1328

Holocene rate of slip and tentative recurrence interval for large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, Cajon Pass, southern California

1985

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Holocene rate of slip and tentative recurrence interval for large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, Cajon Pass, southern California. (1985). doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1985)96 2.0.co;2

Confirmation of a New Geometric and Kinematic Model of the San Andreas Fault at Its Southern Tip, Durmid Hill, Southern California

2016

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Confirmation of a New Geometric and Kinematic Model of the San Andreas Fault at Its Southern Tip, Durmid Hill, Southern California. (2016). doi.org. https://doi.org/10.26076/552b-2507

Quantifying the Impact of a Tsunami on Data-Driven Earthquake Relief Zone Planning in Los Angeles County via Multivariate Spatial Optimization

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Quantifying the Impact of a Tsunami on Data-Driven Earthquake Relief Zone Planning in Los Angeles County via Multivariate Spatial Optimization. (n.d.). mdpi.com. https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/11/2/99/pdf?version=1614302142

FRUS Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume V, Soviet Union, March 1985–October 1986: 150. Memorandum of Conversation

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FRUS Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume V, Soviet Union, March 1985–October 1986: 150. Memorandum of Conversation. (n.d.). history.state.gov. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1981-88v05/d150

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held for human review17 Oct 2026

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