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People with low skill in a domain tend to overestimate their own performance, a pattern known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.
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SUPPORTED
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8 sources for · 1 against
Is it true that people with low skill in a domain tend to overestimate their own performance, a pattern known as the Dunning-Kruger effect?
Yes. A reference overview states that low performers tend to overestimate their skills, and several domain-specific studies (information literacy, college distance education, reasoning tasks) report the same pattern. Some work questions the effect in general intelligence, and other items apply it only to AI models or offer theoretical reinterpretations.
Verdict: SUPPORTED · 8 sources for, 1 against · Last checked
Evidence for · 8
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Dunning–Kruger effect. (n.d.). en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
Evidence against · 1
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Gabriela, H., Valentina, M., Sandra, G., & C., N. A. (2022). Less-Intelligent and Unaware? Accuracy and Dunning-Kruger Effects for Self-Estimates of Different Aspects of Intelligence. eric.ed.gov. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1353697
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More for · 7
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Singh, M., Chatterjee, S., Radhakrishna, A., & Gulwani, S. (2025). Do Code Models Suffer from the Dunning-Kruger Effect?. arxiv.org. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2510.05457
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Khalid, M. (2016). Do People Overestimate Their Information Literacy Skills? A Systematic Review of Empirical Evidence on the Dunning-Kruger Effect. eric.ed.gov. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1125451
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Ghosh, S. & Panday, M. (2026). The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Large Language Models: An Empirical Study of Confidence Calibration. arxiv.org. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.09985
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Dogan, E., Güven, S., Dal, N., Tok, S., & Isik, U. (2023). An Investigation of the Dunning-Kruger Effect in First-Year College Students during Distance Education. eric.ed.gov. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1407623
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Fernandes, D., Rausch, M., Kloft, A. M., Buschek, D., & Welsch, R. (2026). Confident, Not Wiser: The Dunning-Kruger Effect in Human-AI Interaction. arxiv.org. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.31095
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(Daoud), M. D. (2026). Beyond Bias: The Dunning–Kruger Effect as Developmental Calibration. zenodo.org. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18847832
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Confidence Biases and Learning among Intuitive Bayesians. (2015). shs.hal.science. https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01243584v1
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