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the claim

There is a stable long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment.

the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
3 sources for · 6 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that there is a stable long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment?

No. Empirical studies for the US, UK, Euro area, Canada, Australia, Egypt and Japan report no stable long-run inflation-unemployment trade-off, with the long-run Phillips curve found flat or vertical. A few textbook fragments merely assert the trade-off as a position without supporting evidence.

Verdict: REFUTED · 3 sources for, 6 against · Last checked

The private library was unavailable for some searches in this check. Missing library results are not evidence against the claim.

Evidence for · 3
An Incomes policy for the United States : new approaches
1981
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An Incomes policy for the United States : new approaches. (1981). archive.org. https://archive.org/details/incomespolicyfor0000unse

Evidence against · 6
The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation
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The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation. (n.d.). imf.org. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2009/wp0934.pdf

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More for · 2
Macroeconomics : a problem-solving approach, fifth edition. Programmed learning guide
2000
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M, J. E. (2000). Macroeconomics : a problem-solving approach, fifth edition. Programmed learning guide. archive.org. https://archive.org/details/macroeconomicspr0000jame

Economics Study Gde ** James/Otchere
1991
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Economics Study Gde ** James/Otchere. (1991). archive.org. https://archive.org/details/isbn_9780137215720

More against · 5
Some Comments on the long run trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment
1974
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Peel, D. A. (1974). Some Comments on the long run trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0770451800002773

Is there a long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment?
2022
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Is there a long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment?. (2022). economics.stackexchange.com. https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/50712/is-there-a-long-run-tradeoff-between-inflation-and-unemployment

Investigate the Long-Run Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt
2013
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Investigate the Long-Run Trade-Off between Inflation and Unemployment in Egypt. (2013). doi.org. https://doi.org/10.5539/IJEF.V5N7P115

The Determinants of Price Inflation in the United States: A Multivariate Dynamic Cointegration and Causal Analysis
2017
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The Determinants of Price Inflation in the United States: A Multivariate Dynamic Cointegration and Causal Analysis. (2017). doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2017.0009

A comparison of the dynamics of inflation in the USA and Japan: a VAR-VEC analysis
2014
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A comparison of the dynamics of inflation in the USA and Japan: a VAR-VEC analysis. (2014). doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijmef.2014.067719

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