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the claim

The hot hand fallacy is a real cognitive bias.

the verdict
CONTESTED PARTIAL
Recorded sources
4 sources for · 1 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that the hot hand fallacy is a real cognitive bias?

Partly. Several reference works list the hot-hand fallacy among cognitive biases, supporting the claim's classification. However, empirical studies find the hot hand is often real and that the fallacy is far less prevalent than assumed, so the evidence only partially supports the claim.

Verdict: CONTESTED PARTIAL · 4 sources for, 1 against · Last checked

Evidence for · 4
Encyclopedia of Human Behavior
2012
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Encyclopedia of Human Behavior. (2012). play.google.com. https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=yASuxMCuhKkC&source=gbs_api

Evidence against · 1
Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers
2018
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Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers. (2018). osf.io. https://osf.io/sv9x2_v1/

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More for · 3
Encyclopedia of Social Psychology
2007
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Baumeister, R. F. & Vohs, K. D. (2007). Encyclopedia of Social Psychology. books.google.com. http://books.google.com/books?id=Y-0iAQAAIAAJ&dq=The+hot+hand+fallacy+is+a+real+cognitive+bias.&hl=&as_pt=BOOKS&source=gbs_api

Wikibooks: Cognitive Science: An Introduction/Biases and Reasoning Heuristics
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Wikibooks: Cognitive Science: An Introduction/Biases and Reasoning Heuristics. (n.d.). en.wikibooks.org. https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Cognitive_Science:_An_Introduction/Biases_and_Reasoning_Heuristics

Il denaro nei Simpson: dall’homo oeconomicus all’Homer economicus. Finanza comportamentale, vulnerabilità decisionale e diritto regolatorio
2026
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Il denaro nei Simpson: dall’homo oeconomicus all’Homer economicus. Finanza comportamentale, vulnerabilità decisionale e diritto regolatorio. (2026). hdl.handle.net. https://hdl.handle.net/11386/4951335

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held for human review17 Oct 2026
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