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the claim

Previous researchers failed to detect the hot hand due to a statistical fallacy

the verdict

SUPPORTED

the evidence backs this

confidence 75/100

Evidence indicates that initial failures to detect the hot hand phenomenon were partly due to statistical or methodological biases in earlier studies, which later research has addressed.

Evidence for · 2

Wikipedia: Hot hand

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Reference article covering this claim directly

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More for · 1

papers.ssrn.com: Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

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Points to work by Miller and Sanjurjo regarding statistical biases in detecting the hot hand fallacy.

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first checked01 Aug 2026

judged → SUPPORTED · 7501 Aug 2026

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