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the claim
The butterfly effect makes long-term weather prediction impossible.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
Recorded sources
5 sources for · 0 against
Is it true that the butterfly effect makes long-term weather prediction impossible?
Yes. One reference work states outright that, under the butterfly-effect model, long-term weather forecasting will never work because future storms are intrinsically unpredictable. Other sources partially support this, describing chaos-driven divergence and an intrinsic predictability limit, though some note the butterfly perturbation itself has little direct bearing on forecasts.
Verdict: SUPPORTED · 5 sources for, 0 against · Last checked
Evidence for · 5
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Butterfly effect - Wikipedia. (n.d.). en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
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More for · 4
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Is long-term weather prediction effective?. (2011). skeptics.stackexchange.com. https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/4823/is-long-term-weather-prediction-effective
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Selz, T. & Craig, G. C. (2025). Can AI-based weather prediction models simulate the butterfly effect? The role of architecture and implementation.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.176556004.46250262/v1
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Kim, H. & Yoon, J. (2026). Revealing the Butterfly Effect in Deep Learning Weather Prediction Model via Kinetic Energy Spectra Change. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.176832527.75299944/v1
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ed.-l.-jones-encyclopedia-of-religion-15-volume-set-2004. (n.d.). archive.org. https://archive.org/details/ed.-l.-jones-encyclopedia-of-religion-15-volume-set-2004
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