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the claim

The asteroid Apophis will hit Earth in 2029.

the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
0 sources for · 10 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that the asteroid Apophis will hit Earth in 2029?

No. Multiple sources, including a Wikipedia reference and a 2025 planetary-defense workshop report, state that Apophis will safely pass Earth in April 2029 at roughly 30,000–32,000 km, and that the 2029 impact possibility was eliminated. Several mission and observation papers likewise describe 2029 as a close flyby rather than an impact.

Verdict: REFUTED · 0 sources for, 10 against · Last checked

The private library was unavailable for some searches in this check. Missing library results are not evidence against the claim.

Evidence against · 10
2022
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Pérez-Hernández, J. A. & Benet, L. (2022). Non-zero Yarkovsky acceleration for near-Earth asteroid (99942) Apophis. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00337-x

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More against · 9
2024
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Ďurech, J., Pravec, P., Vokrouhlický, D., Hornoch, K., Kušnirák, P., Fatka, P., & Kučáková, H. (2024). Rotation state of asteroid (99942) Apophis and its change during the 2029 flyby. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.5194/epsc2024-257

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The Influence of Internal Structure on Physical Outcomes of the 2029 Apophis Close Approach with Earth. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.3847/psj/ae147e

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RAMSES: A European rendezvous mission to study tidal effects on the Near-Earth Asteroid Apophis during its 2029 close encounter with the Earth. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.5194/epsc-dps2025-806

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99942 Apophis - Wikipedia. (n.d.). en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

2013
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Can they calculate how close 2012 DA14 comes to Earth for the remainder of this century. (2013). skeptics.stackexchange.com. https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/15052/can-they-calculate-how-close-2012-da14-comes-to-earth-for-the-remainder-of-this

2018
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Reddy, V., Sanchez, J. A., Furfaro, R., Binzel, R. P., Burbine, T. H., Corre, L. L., Hardersen, P. S., Bottke, W. F., & Brozovic, M. (2018). Surface Composition of (99942) Apophis. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/aaaa1c

2 recorded entries grouped as this source

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Surface Composition of (99942) Apophis. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/aaaa1c

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Refinement of the convex shape model and tumbling spin state of (99942) Apophis using the 2020–2021 apparition data. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202243442

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ALE'S Mass Driver Experiment: Investigating Apophis Surface Dynamics for Planetary Defense and Resource Utilization. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.5194/epsc-dps2025-2077

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Findings and Recommendations of the Apophis T-4 Years Workshop "Knowledge Opportunity for the Science of Planetary Defense". (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.5194/epsc-dps2025-198

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