People systematically overestimate their future happiness when imagining major positive life events.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 84/100
Evidence from psychological research confirms the impact bias in affective forecasting, showing that individuals systematically overpredict the intensity and duration of their future emotional responses.
Evidence for · 4
The impact bias in self and others: Affective and empathic forecasting in individuals with social anxiety.
2018 · cited by 28
Supports the claim by demonstrating that people exhibit the 'impact bias' in affective forecasting, overestimating the intensity and duration of future affect.
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More for · 3
Associations Between Social Anxiety and Affective and Empathic Forecasts: A Replication and Extension in a Mechanical Turk Sample.
2020 · cited by 14
Reconfirms the presence of impact biases where individuals systematically misjudge future emotional states.
Do We Know What We Enjoy? Accuracy of Forecasted Eating Happiness
2020 · cited by 7
Demonstrates that individuals show forecasting errors (impact bias) regarding upcoming emotional events, supporting biased affective predictions.
Affective Forecasting Accuracy in Everyday Life.
2026 · cited by 0
Discusses how affective forecasting research consistently reveals that people make errors in predicting their absolute future affect levels.