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the claim
New Keynesian modeling adequately addresses the Lucas critique
the verdict
CONTESTED
the evidence cuts both ways
confidence 32/100

While New Keynesian DSGE models incorporate microfoundations and forward-looking behavior intended to surmount the Lucas critique, critics and empirical assessments highlight ongoing structural instabilities and discrepancies with real-world data.

The evidence we hold leans evenly split

How this was weighed

official record 3x · fact-check 2x · hedged 1x · crowd & reference 1x

  • Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1.05 · 2004
  • New Keynesian Optimal-Policy Models: An Empirical Assessment · peer-reviewed · supports · weight 1 · 2004
  • Robert Boyer, Une discipline sans réflexivité peut-elle être · peer-reviewed · refutes · weight 1 · 2023
  • New Keynesian Optimal-Policy Models: An Empirical Assessment · peer-reviewed · refutes · weight 1 · 2004
Evidence for · 2
Assessing the Lucas Critique in Monetary Policy Models
2004 · cited by 3
Paper [0] demonstrates that forward-looking macroeconomic specifications are relatively insensitive to policy shifts, offering a reconciliation with reduced-form stability that addresses aspects of the Lucas critique.
Evidence against · 2
Robert Boyer, Une discipline sans réflexivité peut-elle être une science? Epistémologie de l’économie : Editions de la Sorbonne, 2021
2023 · cited by 0
Paper [7] critiques mainstream macroeconomics, including its microfounded DSGE approaches, for losing relevance with observations and failing to adequately model changing socioeconomic regimes.
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More for · 1
New Keynesian Optimal-Policy Models: An Empirical Assessment
2004 · cited by 0
Paper [10] estimates optimization-based sticky-price New Keynesian models to assess their empirical fit, showing how structural parameters can be evaluated under policy rules.
More against · 1
New Keynesian Optimal-Policy Models: An Empirical Assessment
2004 · cited by 0
Paper [10] notes that even the best-fitting New Keynesian specification displays characteristics and empirical failures that remain inconsistent with actual data.
The paper trail · every fact has a biography
first checked01 Aug 2026
judged → CONTESTED · 3201 Aug 2026
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