Most published research findings are false.

Is it true that most published research findings are false?

Partly. The Ioannidis essay and its summaries argue, via a statistical model and simulations, that most published findings are likely false positives, while an empirical review of Cochrane meta-analyses found false positives in only about 7% of them. The evidence covers the claim only in part and points in different directions.

Verdict: CONTESTED PARTIAL · 4 sources for, 1 against · Last checked 17 Oct 2026

The private library was unavailable for some searches in this check. Missing library results are not evidence against the claim.

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. (n.d.). en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Most_Published_Research_Findings_Are_False

False-positive findings in Cochrane meta-analyses with and without application of trial sequential analysis: an empirical review. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011890

JP, I. (2005). Why most published research findings are false.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False | PLOS Medicine. (n.d.). journals.plos.org. https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124

Actual number of false positive at α =0.05. (n.d.). stats.stackexchange.com. https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/318351