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the claim

If a roulette ball has landed on black five times in a row, it is more likely to land on red next.

the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
0 sources for · 2 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that if a roulette ball has landed on black five times in a row, it is more likely to land on red next?

No. The claim describes the classic gambler's fallacy. In independent random events like roulette, previous outcomes have no influence on future probabilities, making the likelihood of landing on red identical on every spin regardless of past streaks.

Verdict: REFUTED · 0 sources for, 2 against · Last checked

Evidence against · 2
'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task.
2015
Demonstrates that individuals exhibit the gambler's fallacy in binary choice tasks like red/black roulette predictions, erroneously expecting outcomes to alternate after a streak.
Get citation
B, S., EH, L., & L, C. (2015). 'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1844

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More against · 1
The number of available sample observations modulates gambler's fallacy in betting behaviors.
2025
Provides empirical evidence of the gambler's fallacy as a cognitive bias where people incorrectly assume independent random processes exhibit negative serial correlation following streaks.
Get citation
D, W. & Y, L. (2025). The number of available sample observations modulates gambler's fallacy in betting behaviors.. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84929-5

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