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the claim

Higher taxes on cigarettes reduce smoking rates.

the verdict
CONTESTED PARTIAL
Recorded sources
4 sources for · 1 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Is it true that higher taxes on cigarettes reduce smoking rates?

Partly. Several sources partially support the claim that higher cigarette taxes reduce smoking: a World Bank document and a book state that higher taxes reduce consumption or prevalence, and a Bangladesh youth study finds higher taxes can reduce smoking initiation. However, a peer-reviewed study of U.S. adults finds the association negative but small and usually not statistically significant, so the evidence is mixed and only partial.

Verdict: CONTESTED PARTIAL · 4 sources for, 1 against · Last checked

The private library was unavailable for some searches in this check. Missing library results are not evidence against the claim.

Evidence for · 4
Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run
2020
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Friedson, A. I. & Rees, D. I. (2020). Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run. nber.org. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27204

Evidence against · 1
DO HIGHER TOBACCO TAXES REDUCE ADULT SMOKING? NEW EVIDENCE OF THE EFFECT OF RECENT CIGARETTE TAX INCREASES ON ADULT SMOKING
2013
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CALLISON, K. & KAESTNER, R. (2013). DO HIGHER TOBACCO TAXES REDUCE ADULT SMOKING? NEW EVIDENCE OF THE EFFECT OF RECENT CIGARETTE TAX INCREASES ON ADULT SMOKING. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12027

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More for · 3
Factors affecting smoking initiation among the youth in Bangladesh – An empirical analysis
2018
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Mallik, B. A. (2018). Factors affecting smoking initiation among the youth in Bangladesh – An empirical analysis. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/94761

Public Opinion, Public Policy, and Smoking
2016
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Marshall, T. R. (2016). Public Opinion, Public Policy, and Smoking. play.google.com. https://play.google.com/store/books/details?id=Ylh2EQAAQBAJ&source=gbs_api

Stop smoking : it's deadly and bad for the economy
2017
Get citation
Stop smoking : it's deadly and bad for the economy. (2017). documents.worldbank.org. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/634901517564478878

Receipt History
held for human review16 Oct 2026
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