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Elite overproduction is a concept developed by Peter Turchin as part of structural-demographic theory to explain political instability.
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SUPPORTED
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9 sources for · 0 against
Is it true that elite overproduction is a concept developed by Peter Turchin as part of structural-demographic theory to explain political instability?
Yes. A reference article states that elite overproduction is a concept developed by Peter Turchin, describing an excess supply of potential elites relative to available positions, which he hypothesizes causes social instability. Several peer-reviewed papers apply elite overproduction within structural-demographic theory to explain political instability, though they do not credit Turchin with developing the concept.
Verdict: SUPPORTED · 9 sources for, 0 against · Last checked
Evidence for · 9
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Peter Turchin - Wikipedia. (n.d.). en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Turchin
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More for · 8
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Muñoz-Rodríguez, M., Ferrero, R., Luna, J. P., & Lima, M. (2024). Squeezed from the top: “Social Outburst” (2019) and elite overproduction. A study of the dynamics of Chilean political instability from the approach of Structural Demographic Theory. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0299063
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Richerson, P. J. (2017). A Dynamic Analysis of American Socio-Political History. A Review of Ages of Discord: A Structural Demographic Analysis of American History by Peter Turchin (Beresta Books, 2016). doi.org. https://doi.org/10.21237/c7clio8237156
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Gac, S. A. (2024). Hypotheses Testing for the Structural-Demographic Model for Political Instability and Social Unrest. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.30884/978-5-7057-6354-2_08
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Turchin, P. (2012). Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312442078
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Structural-Demographic Analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) Collapse in China. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/5awhk
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Turchin, P. & Hoyer, D. (2023). Empirically Testing and Refining Structural Demographic Theory: A Methodological Guide. doi.org. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/yrqw5
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Západní deklinismus a krize elit. (2025). nusl.cz. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-686216
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Peter, T. (2012). Dynamics of political instability in the United States, 1780–2010. jpr.sagepub.com. http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/49/4/577.abstract
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