Climate models overestimate future warming.

Is it true that climate models overestimate future warming?

Partly. Evidence is mixed and only partial: one analysis reports most models overestimated recent warming, and a few specific models overestimate historical trends, while other evaluations find projections matched or slightly underestimated observed warming. No source settles the general claim that climate models overestimate future warming.

Verdict: CONTESTED PARTIAL · 4 sources for, 2 against · Last checked 17 Oct 2026

Have 95% of climate models over-forecast the global warming trend?. (2015). skeptics.stackexchange.com. https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/27639/have-95-of-climate-models-over-forecast-the-global-warming-trend

How well have CMIP3, CMIP5 and CMIP6 future climate projections portrayed the recently observed warming. (n.d.). api.semanticscholar.org. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:250560095

Climate Models Exaggerate the Enhanced Double‐ITCZ in the Warming Tropical Pacific Due To Preexisting Precipitation Bias. (2025). hal.science. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl115445

Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends. (n.d.). cir.nii.ac.jp. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51474-8

Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios. (n.d.). doi.org. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000343

NASA GISS: NASA GISS: Research Features: Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right. (n.d.). giss.nasa.gov. https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/features/202001_accuracy/