ARIMA models are a valid approach for forecasting economic variables
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 57/100
ARIMA models are widely validated as a viable univariate approach for forecasting economic variables, though multivariate models or machine learning enhancements are sometimes preferred for capturing complex cross-variable correlations.
Evidence for · 2
Modeling and Forecasting Somali Economic Growth Using ARIMA Models
2022 · cited by 26
Paper [0] demonstrates that an ARIMA model effectively forecasts Somali GDP growth with stable and statistically sound diagnostics.
Evidence against · 1
Comparison of Forecasting Performance with VAR vs. ARIMA Models Using Economic Variables of Bangladesh
2020 · cited by 12
Paper [1] finds that while ARIMA performs adequately for low-correlated variables, multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) models yield superior forecasts for highly correlated economic indicators.
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More for · 1
The Effectiveness of Forecasting Gold Prices Using ARIMA Models
2025 · cited by 3
Paper [4] shows that ARIMA models successfully capture and predict the trends of financial assets like gold prices under stable economic conditions.