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the claim
A streak of losses makes a person due for a streak of wins.
the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
Recorded sources
0 sources for · 5 against
Is it true that a streak of losses makes a person due for a streak of wins?
No. The claim that a streak of losses makes a person due for a streak of wins is a well-known cognitive error called the gambler's fallacy. In independent random events, past outcomes do not alter future probabilities.
Verdict: REFUTED · 0 sources for, 5 against · Last checked
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Judged against fact-checker rulings and reference works: claims of this kind are settled by the fact-checking record, not journal abstracts.
Evidence against · 5
Reference article covering this claim directly
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Wikipedia: Gambler's fallacy. (n.d.). Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
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More against · 4
Identifies the belief that one is due for a win after losses as the 'gambler's fallacy'.
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Semantic Scholar peS2o: Culture and gambling fallacies. (n.d.). Semantic Scholar peS2o. https://springerplus.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s40064-015-1290-2
Describes human choices under uncertainty influenced by the erroneous gambler's fallacy belief after losing outcomes.
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Semantic Scholar peS2o: ‘Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!’: Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task. (n.d.). Semantic Scholar peS2o. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/bdm.1844
Notes that believing luck will reverse after a loss is a cognitive distortion known as the gambler's fallacy.
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PLOS (all journals): Experiencing a significant win and its sociodemographic and motivational predictors: A comparative analysis of pure-chance gamblers from Poland and France. (n.d.). PLOS (all journals). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277972
Identifies the belief that bad luck will change for the better through persistence as a cognitive distortion.
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PLOS (all journals): Cognitive distortions among older adult gamblers in an Asian context. (n.d.). PLOS (all journals). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178036
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