Tariffs can cause consumer price increases exceeding the tariff rate due to markup cascading and supply chain effects
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Peer-reviewed literature demonstrates that tariffs lead to indirect consumer price increases driven by elevated supply chain input costs and increased domestic producer markups.
Tariffs raise the prices of goods made at home, not just the imports they tax—an effect that standard pass-through estimates largely miss. Studying the 2025 U.S. tariffs, we find that about 26 percent of the tariff increase passes through to consumer prices. These estimates are measured relative to less-exposed goods and hold aggregate conditions fixed. The direct effect accounts for 64 percent of this increase, as tariffs raise the consumer prices of foreign varieties of a good. The remaining 36 percent arises indirectly—tariffs raise the cost of imported inputs used by U.S. producers, and domestic producers raise their markups because they face less competition from higher-priced imports. The direct effect passes through quickly, since tariffs raise import prices almost immediately, but the indirect effect takes nine to twelve months to work its way through supply chains. As a result, tariffs have a larger and more drawn-out impact on consumers than the direct effect alone would suggest.<br><br>Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/&#119;35561" TARGET="_blank">www.nber.org</a>.<br>