Exchange rates overshot their long-term equilibrium in response to monetary shocks
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Empirical studies, such as research testing the Dornbusch overshooting model, demonstrate that exchange rates overshoot their long-run equilibrium following monetary shocks.
This study aims to analyze the effects of money supply on exchange rate in Indonesia and to investigate whether there is an application of the Dornbusch Overshooting Model. The Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) method is used to analyze short-term and long-term effects and uses time-series data from 2000:Q1 to 2021:Q4. The results of this study show that the long-term coefficient of the money supply has a smaller effect on the depreciating exchange rate than the short-term coefficient. Based on the estimation results, it can be concluded that there is an application of the Dornbusch Overshooting Model in Indonesia. A further implication of this research is that the factors that influence exchange rate fluctuations are of great concern in an effort to maintain exchange rate stability. For example, growth in the money supply because a 1 percent change in the money supply results in a change of more than 1 percent in the exchange rate. In addition to the money supply, other variables such as inflation and interest rates also have a large influence on changes in exchange rates and have different magnitudes of influence in the short and long-run.
This study evaluates the individual roles of monetary and productivity shocks in real exchange rate fluctuations under the current float. Using a cointegration model of exchange rates and relative prices, the innovations are decomposed into transitory and common-trend parts. Both transitory and common-trend innovations are found to explain a significant portion of real exchange rate fluctuations, albeit their relative importance can vary across major currencies. Further analysis suggests that common-trend innovations are ascribed mostly to productivity shocks, whereas transitory innovations are governed by monetary shocks. The allowance for productivity shocks, however, appears insufficient to fully explain the high persistence of real exchange rates.
The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of the money supply on exchange rates in ASEAN-5 and whether there is an exchange rate overshooting phenomenon with the application of the Dornbusch Overshooting Model. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) method to analyze the short and long-term effects and uses time series data from 1980 to 2021 in ASEAN-5. The results of this study are still ambiguous in finding the overshooting phenomenon in ASEAN-5. In the short term, the research results support overshooting in two countries, Malaysia and Thailand. However, in the long term, no positive and significant influence was found between the money supply gap and exchange rate misalignment in ASEAN-5. Besides that, the inflation gap, interest rate gap, and output gap also greatly influence changes in exchange rate misalignment and have different significant effects in the short and long term.
We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their steady-state levels consistent with current potential output). Overshooting leads to a temporary disconnect between the performance of financial markets and the real economy, but it accelerates the recovery. When there is a lower-bound constraint on the discount rate, overshooting becomes a concave and non-monotonic function of the output gap: the asset price boost is low for a deeply negative initial output gap, grows as the output gap improves over a range, and shrinks toward zero as the output gap improves further. This pattern also implies that good macroeconomic news is better news for asset prices when the output gap is more negative. Finally, we document that during the Covid-19 recovery, the policy-induced overshooting was large—sufficient to explain the high levels of stock and house prices in 2021.
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