Earth could theoretically run out of atmospheric oxygen under extreme future scenarios
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refutedsupported
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Retrieved reference sources state that future conditions may become uninhabitable, but they do not confirm that Earth could run out of atmospheric oxygen.
Abstract Environmental conditions have changed in the past of our planet but were not hostile enough to extinguish life. In the future, an aged Earth and a more luminous Sun may lead to harsh or even uninhabitable conditions for life. In order to estimate the life span of the biosphere we built a minimal model of the co-evolution of the geosphere, atmosphere and biosphere of our planet, taking into account temperature boundaries, CO 2 partial pressure lower limits for C3 and C4 plants, and the presence of enough surface water. Our results indicate that the end of the biosphere will happen long before the Sun becomes a red giant, as the biosphere faces increasingly more difficult conditions in the future until its collapse due to high temperatures. The lower limit for CO 2 partial pressure for C3 plants will be reached in 170(+ 320, − 110) Myr, followed by the C4 plants limit in 840(+ 270, − 100) Myr. The mean surface temperature will reach 373 K in 1.63(+ 0.14, − 0.05) Gyr, a point that would mark the extinction of the biosphere. Water loss due to internal geophysical processes will not be dramatic, implying almost no variation in the surface ocean mass and ocean depth for the next 1.5 billion years. Our predictions show qualitative convergence and some quantitative agreement with results found in the literature, but there is considerable scattering in the scale of hundreds of millions of years for all the criteria devised. Even considering these uncertainties, the end of the biosphere will hardly happen sooner than 1.5 Gyr.
Earth is the third planet from the Sun and the only astronomical object known to harbor life. This is made possible by Earth being an ocean world, the only one in the Solar System sustaining liquid surface water. Almost all of Earth's water is contained in its ocean, which covers 70.8% of Earth's crust. The remaining 29.2% of Earth's crust is land, which is predominantly located within Earth's lan
Earth's expected long-term future is tied to that of the Sun. Over the next 1.1 billion years, solar luminosity will increase by 10%, and over the next 3.5 billion years by 40%. Earth's increasing surface temperature will accelerate the inorganic carbon cycle, possibly reducing CO2 concentration to levels lethally low for current plants (10 ppm for C4 photosynthesis) in approximately 100–900 million years. A lack of vegetation would result in the loss of oxygen in the atmosphere, making current animal life impossible. Due to the increased luminosity, Earth's mean temperature may reach 100 °C (212 °F) in 1.5 billion years, and all ocean water will evaporate and be lost to space, which may trigger a runaway greenhouse effect, within an estimated 1.6 to 3 billion years. Even if the Sun were stable and eternal, a significant fraction of the water in the modern oceans would descend into the mantle, due to reduced steam venting from mid-ocean ridges as the core of the Earth slowly cools.
The Sun will evolve to become a red giant in about 5 billion years. Models predict that the Sun will expand to roughly 1 AU (150 million km; 93 million mi), about 250 times its present radius. Earth's fate is less clear. As a red giant, the Sun will lose roughly 30% of its mass, so, without tidal effects, Earth will move to an orbit 1.7 AU (250 million km; 160 million mi) from the Sun when the star reaches its maximum radius, otherwise, with tidal effects, it may enter the Sun's atmosphere and be vaporized, with the heavier elements sinking to the core of the dying sun. A new study published in 2026 has suggested that the Earth is likely to survive the Sun's asymptotic giant branch phase.
Earth's atmosphere has no definite boundary, gradually becoming thinner and fading into outer space. Three-quarters of the atmosphere's mass is contained within the first 11 km (6.8 mi) of the surface; this lowest layer is called the troposphere. Energy from the Sun heats this layer, and the surface below, causing expansion of the air. This lower-density air then rises and is replaced by cooler, higher-density air. The result is atmospheric circulation that drives the weather and climate through…
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