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the claim
Lower tropospheric temperature is a relevant metric for measuring global warming
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
2 sources for · 0 against

Peer-reviewed literature and scientific reanalyses demonstrate that lower tropospheric temperature observations are effectively used to assess global warming trends and climate variations.

Evidence for · 2
2003 · cited by 142
We have analyzed the global tropospheric temperature for 1978 to 2002 with the use of passive microwave sounding data from the NOAA series of polar orbiters and the Earth Observing System Aqua satellite. To accurately retrieve the climatic trend, we combined the satellite data with an analytic model of temperature that contains three different time scales: a linear trend and functions that define the seasonal and diurnal cycles. Our analysis shows a trend of +0.22° to 0.26°C per 10 years, consistent with the global warming trend derived from surface meteorological stations.
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The analysis

rails:sufficiency:supported:for=2+0p:against=0+0p | v55:sufficiency

More for · 1
2026 · cited by 0
Abstract We analyze accelerated global warming over 1981–2025 using satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature (TLT) data and examine its relationship to the pronounced warming observed during 2023–2024. To reduce uncertainty and improve the robustness of acceleration detection, an adjusted TLT record is constructed by removing ENSO- and aerosol-related variability. This adjustment reduces the magnitude of TLT annual variability by nearly 50%, which greatly increases the robustness and reliability of acceleration detection. We therefore recommend using the ENSO–aerosol-adjusted TLT for long-term trend and acceleration analyses. With the adjusted TLT, statistically significant warming trends of up to 0.482 ± 0.113°C decade⁻¹ are found from 2015 onward across all satellite and reanalysis datasets examined in this study, representing an increase of approximately four to five times relative to the pre-2015 period. This large trend, however, is only a conservative estimate. At the upper end, statistically significant acceleration rates of up to 0.48 ± 0.12°C decade⁻² are inferred near 2024, indicating that the recent temperature jumps are part of an ongoing acceleration amplified by the El Niño event. Projections based on the accelerated trend estimates suggest the potential for an additional 0.5–1.0°C of warming within the next decade.
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  1. Global Warming Trend of Mean Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellitespeer-reviewedno side taken
  2. Global warming acceleration in satellite observed lower-tropospheric temperaturepeer-reviewedno side taken
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