Major systematic reviews and meta-analyses report significant global declines in human sperm counts over recent decades, while other researchers and reviews contest the strength of the evidence, pointing to methodological challenges and potential confounding factors.
BACKGROUND: Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: To provide a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of recent trends in sperm counts as measured by sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC), and their modification by fertility and geographic group. SEARCH METHODS: PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for English language studies of human SC published in 1981-2013. Following a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years of sample collection and covariates [fertility group ('Unselected by fertility' versus 'Fertile'), geographic group ('Western', including North America, Europe Australia and New Zealand versus 'Other', including South America, Asia and Africa), age, ejaculation abstinence time, semen collection method, method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. OUTCOMES: SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P < 0.001; slope in adjusted meta-regression models = -0.64; -1.06 to -0.22; P = 0.003). The slopes in the meta-regression model were modified by fertility (P for interaction = 0.064) and geographic group (P for interaction = 0.027). There was a significant decline in SC between 1973 and 2011 among Unselected Western (-1.38; -2.02 to -0.74; P < 0.001) and among Fertile Western (-0.68; -1.31 to -0.05; P = 0.033), while no significant trends were seen among Unselected Other and Fertile Other. Among Unselected Western studies, the mean SC declined, on average, 1.4% per year with an overall decline of 52.4% between 1973 and 2011. Trends for TSC and SC were similar, with a steep decline among Unselected Western (-5.33 million/year, -7.56 to -3.11; P < 0.001), corresponding to an average decline in mean TSC of 1.6% per year and overall decline of 59.3%. Results changed minimally in multiple sensitivity analyses, and there was no statistical support for the use of a nonlinear model. In a model restricted to data post-1995, the slope both for SC and TSC among Unselected Western was similar to that for the entire period (-2.06 million/ml, -3.38 to -0.74; P = 0.004 and -8.12 million, -13.73 to -2.51, P = 0.006, respectively). WIDER IMPLICATIONS: This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because of the significant public health implications of these results, research on the causes of this continuing decline is urgently needed.
We systematically examined the evidence of declining sperm counts and the hypothesis that an increased exposure to environmental pollutants is responsible for such decline. Search engines, including PUBMED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library, were used to identify epidemiologic studies published from 1985 to 2013. We concluded that there is no enough evidence to confirm a worldwide decline in sperm counts. Also, there seems to be no scientific truth of a causative role for endocrine disruptors in the temporal decline of sperm production. Such assumptions are based on few meta-analyses and retrospective studies, while other well-conducted researches could not confirm these findings. We acknowledge that difficult-to-control confounding factors in the highly variable nature of semen, selection criteria, and comparability of populations from different time periods in secular-trend studies, the quality of laboratory methods for counting sperm, and apparently geographic variations in semen quality are the main issues that complicate the interpretation of the available evidence. Owing to the importance of this subject and the uncertainties still prevailing, there is a need not only for continuing monitoring of semen quality, reproductive hormones, and xenobiotics, but also for a better definition of fecundity.
Numerous studies have reported declines in semen quality and other markers of male reproductive health. Our previous meta-analysis reported a significant decrease in sperm concentration (SC) and total sperm count (TSC) among men from North America-Europe-Australia (NEA) based on studies published during 1981-2013. At that time, there were too few studies with data from South/Central America-Asia-Africa (SAA) to reliably estimate trends among men from these continents. The aim of this study was to examine trends in sperm count among men from all continents. The broader implications of a global decline in sperm count, the knowledge gaps left unfilled by our prior analysis and the controversies surrounding this issue warranted an up-to-date meta-analysis. We searched PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify studies of human SC and TSC published during 2014-2019. After review of 2936 abstracts and 868 full articles, 44 estimates of SC and TSC from 38 studies met the protocol criteria. Data were extracted on semen parameters (SC, TSC, semen volume), collection year and covariates. Combining these new data with data from our previous meta-analysis, the current meta-analysis includes results from 223 studies, yielding 288 estimates based on semen samples collected 1973-2018. Slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using simple linear regression as well as weighted meta-regression. The latter models were adjusted for predetermined covariates and examined for modification by fertility status (unselected by fertility versus fertile), and by two groups of continents: NEA and SAA. These analyses were repeated for data collected post-2000. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine assumptions, including linearity. Overall, SC declined appreciably between 1973 and 2018 (slope in the simple linear model: -0.87 million/ml/year, 95% CI: -0.89 to -0.86; P < 0.001). In an adjusted meta-regression model, which included two interaction terms [time × fertility group (P = 0.012) and time × continents (P = 0.058)], declines were seen among unselected men from NEA (-1.27; -1.78 to -0.77; P < 0.001) and unselected men from SAA (-0.65; -1.29 to -0.01; P = 0.045) and fertile men from NEA (-0.50; -1.00 to -0.01; P = 0.046). Among unselected men from all continents, the mean SC declined by 51.6% between 1973 and 2018 (-1.17: -1.66 to -0.68; P < 0.001). The slope for SC among unselected men was steeper in a model restricted to post-2000 data (-1.73: -3.23 to -0.24; P = 0.024) and the percent decline per year doubled, increasing from 1.16% post-1972 to 2.64% post-2000. Results were similar for TSC, with a 62.3% overall decline among unselected men (-4.70 million/year; -6.56 to -2.83; P < 0.001) in the adjusted meta-regression model. All results changed only minimally in multiple sensitivity analyses. This analysis is the first to report a decline in sperm count among unselected men from South/Central America-Asia-Africa, in contrast to our previous meta-analysis that was underpowered to examine those continents. Furthermore, data suggest that this world-wide decline is continuing in the 21st century at an accelerated pace. Research on the causes of this continuing decline and actions to prevent further disruption of male reproductive health are urgently needed.
Carlsen and coworkers (1992) reviewed 61 heterogeneous observational studies on semen quality published between 1938 and 1990. This review indicates that mean sperm density decreased significantly between 1940 and 1990. An extended meta-analysis with 101 studies confirmed a decline in sperm density for the period from 1934 to 1996 (2000). The key message of the meta-analyses is that sperm counts have decreased globally by about 50% over the past decades. This assessment has been questioned.A major methodological problem of the meta-analysis is the use of data collected in different countries, at different times, on different populations and with different methods of semen analysis. Furthermore, the results of studies concerning semen analysis are frequently biased e.g. by selection criteria of volunteers. In most studies on human semen characteristics the populations under study are insufficiently defined and the study participants are not a representative population sample. The incidence of testicular cancer has increased in Caucasian men worldwide. The investigation of common risk factors for male reproductive disorders requires well designed epidemiological studies and the collection of individual data.Former meta-analyses of sperm count data show a global downward trend. This conclusion should be interpreted with caution. The included studies are of great heterogeneity due to geographical and/or ethnical variation, different study designs and different methodological stan
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News: Sperm counts may be declining... (CNN News) - Behind the headlines
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Nov. 18, 2022 -->
CNN News Nov. 18, 2022
Sperm counts may be declining globally, review finds, adding to debate over male fertility | CNN
Over the past 50 years, human sperm counts appear to have fallen by more than 50% around the globe, according to an updated review of medical literature.
Read more at CNN News
Behind the headlines Research findings and data from the National Library of Medicine
PubMed articles
Hum Reprod Update
NOV. 15, 2022
Temporal trends in sperm count: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis of samples collected globally in the 20th and 21st centuries
H Levine et al
This analysis is the first to report a decline in sperm count among unselected men from South/Central America-Asia-Africa, in contrast to our previous meta-analysis that …
Fertil Steril
JAN. 1, 2021
Are worldwide sperm counts declining?
N Jørgensen et al
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Decreasing sperm counts in human populations over the last century is a trend of increasing concern. Several recent studies have shown that embryonic environment and exposures can lead to adult onset and trans-generational disease including reduced sperm count and motility in rodent models. To better understand how atypical sexual development can lead to reduced fertility, it is critical to determine the mechanisms of the SRY directed program of male sexual differentiation, its disruption, and the fetal basis of adult onset disease. In this thesis, the mechanisms involved in mammalian testis development are investigated. Transcriptional regulation during sexual differentiation was investigated using a genomic microarray approach to determine how transcriptional and morphological events are orchestrated. Cellular pathways and processes affected by genes regulated in testis differentiation included Wnt and Notch signaling, cellular differentiation, proliferation, focal contact, RNA localization, and development. Transcriptional alterations of testis differentiation by the fungicide vinclozolin were also investigated using a microarray approach to identify candidate mechanisms of action leading to adult onset and trans-generational transmission of disease. The genes and processes affected suggest apoptosis and vascular formation may be affected by vinclozolin treatment and transcriptional and epigenetic mechanisms may be important for mediation of affects seen with vinclozolin t
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has baselessly tied alleged declines in sperm counts among teenagers to a “fertility crisis” or an “explosion in infertility.” The post RFK Jr.’s Flawed Claims About Sperm Count and Fertility appeared first on FactCheck.org .
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