Lunar ice persists in permanently shadowed craters despite sublimation risks
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Scientific literature and remote sensing data confirm that water ice persists within permanently shadowed polar craters on the Moon, where extremely low temperatures maintain negligibly low sublimation rates.
The NASA Artemis program will send humans to the lunar south polar region, in part to investigate the availability of water ice and other in situ resources. While trace amounts of ice have been detected at the surface of polar permanently shadowed regions (PSRs), recent studies suggest that large ice deposits could be stable below cold traps in the PSRs over geologic time. A recent study modeling the rate of ice delivery, ejecta deposition and ice loss from cold traps predicted that gigatons of ice could be buried below 100s of meters of crater ejecta and regolith. However, crater ejecta vigorously mix the target on impact through ballistic sedimentation, which may disrupt buried ice deposits. Here, we developed a thermal model to predict ice stability during ballistic sedimentation events. We then modeled cold trap ice and ejecta stratigraphy over geologic time using Monte Carlo methods. We found that ballistic sedimentation disrupted large ice deposits in most cases, dispersing them into smaller layers. Ice retention decreased in most cases, but varied significantly with the sequence of ejecta delivery, particularly from basin‐forming events. Over many model runs, we found that south polar craters Amundsen, Cabeus, and Cabeus B were most likely to retain large deposits of ice at depths up to 100 m, shallow enough to be detectable with ground‐penetrating radar. We discuss these findings in the context of the imminent human exploration activities at the lunar south pole.
     Permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) are areas of a planetary surface that lie in continual shadow from direct sunlight. Their existence at the lunar polar regions has been recognized for nearly 70 years [1] and in the intervening time much has been learned about their unique thermal environment and capacity for volatile preservation [2]. In the absence of direct sunlight and without an atmosphere to transport and trap heat, lunar PSRs remain cold throughout the year, with maximum temperatures typically below ~110 K, although temperatures as low as 45 K have been reported in some areas [3]. At these low temperatures, PSRs can act as cold traps for H2O water ice as sublimation rates are negligibly low (~1 mm Gyr-1).      In addition to H2O, other volatile species, such as CO2, NH3, H2S, SO2, and CH4 are regularly supplied to the Moon through cometary impacts or are created through solar wind interactions. These species have been observed in varying abundances by the Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) experiment within Cabeus crater near the south pole [4]. Once delivered or produced, these molecules may migrate about the lunar surface through a series of ballistic hops and potentially accumulate within cold traps near the poles if temperatures are sufficiently low. Relative to H2O, however, these volatiles have higher vapor pressures and thus require lower temperatures for long-term thermodynamic stability; thus, not
The Moon is the only natural satellite of Earth. It orbits around Earth at an average distance of 384,399 kilometers (238,854 mi), a distance roughly 30 times the width of Earth. It completes an orbit (lunar month) in relation to Earth and the Sun (synodically) every 29.5 days. The Moon and Earth are bound by gravitational attraction, which is stronger on the sides facing each other. The resulting
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Liquid water cannot persist on the lunar surface. When exposed to solar radiation, water quickly decomposes through a process known as photodissociation and is lost to space. However, since the 1960s, scientists have hypothesized that water ice may be deposited by impacting comets or possibly produced by the reaction of oxygen-rich lunar rocks, and hydrogen from solar wind, leaving traces of water which could possibly persist in cold, permanently shadowed craters at either pole on the Moon. Computer simulations suggest that up to 14,000 km2 (5,400 sq mi) of the surface may be in permanent shadow. The presence of usable quantities of water on the Moon is an important factor in rendering lunar habitation as a cost-effective plan; the alternative of transporting water from Earth would be prohibitively expensive.
In years since, signatures of water have been found to exist on the lunar surface. In 1994, the bistatic radar experiment located on the Clementine spacecraft, indicated the existence of small, frozen pockets of water close to the surface. However, later radar observations by Arecibo, suggest these findings may rather be rocks ejected from young impact craters. In 1998, the neutron spectrometer on the Lunar Prospector spacecraft showed that high concentrations of hydrogen are present in the first meter of depth in the regolith near the polar regions. Volcanic lava beads, brought back to Earth aboard Apollo 15, showed small amounts of water in their interior.
The 2008 Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft has since confirmed the existence of surface water ice, using the on-board Moon Mineralogy Mapper. The spectrometer observed absorption lines common to hydroxyl, in reflected sunlight, providing evidence of large quantities of water ice, on the lunar surface. The spacecraft showed that concentrations may possibly be as high as 1,000 ppm. Using the mapper's reflectance spectra, indirect lighting of areas in shadow confirmed water ice within 20° latitude of both poles in 2018. In 2009, LCROSS sent a 2,300 kg (5,100 lb) impactor into a permanently shadowed polar crater, and detected at least 100 kg (220 lb) of water in a plume of ejected material. Another examination of…
We find that the reflectance of the lunar surface within 5 deg of latitude of theSouth Pole increases rapidly with decreasing temperature, near approximately 110K, behavior consistent with the presence of surface water ice. The North polar region does not show this behavior, nor do South polar surfaces at latitudes more than 5 deg from the pole. This South pole reflectance anomaly persists when analysis is limited to surfaces with slopes less than 10 deg to eliminate false detection due to the brightening effect of mass wasting, and also when the very bright south polar crater Shackleton is excluded from the analysis. We also find that south polar regions of permanent shadow that have been reported to be generally brighter at 1064 nm do not show anomalous reflectance when their annual maximum surface temperatures are too high to preserve water ice. This distinction is not observed at the North Pole. The reflectance excursion on surfaces with maximum temperatures below 110K is superimposed on a general trend of increasing reflectance with decreasing maximum temperature that is present throughout the polar regions in the north and south; we attribute this trend to a temperature or illumination-dependent space weathering effect (e.g. Hemingway et al. 2015). We also find a sudden increase in reflectance with decreasing temperature superimposed on the general trend at 200K and possibly at 300K. This may indicate the presence of other volatiles such as sulfur or organics. We identi
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