Weather changes and atmospheric patterns follow periodic cycles over multi-year spans
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
7 sources for · 0 against
Peer-reviewed studies and climate research demonstrate that atmospheric patterns, climatic indices, and precipitation trends follow multi-year periodic cycles driven by oceanic and solar oscillations.
Abstract The total mass of the atmosphere varies mainly from changes in water vapor loading; the former is proportional to global mean surface pressure and the water vapor component is computed directly from specific humidity and precipitable water using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analyses (ERA-40). Their difference, the mass of the dry atmosphere, is estimated to be constant for the equivalent surface pressure to within 0.01 hPa based on changes in atmospheric composition. Global reanalyses satisfy this constraint for monthly means for 1979–2001 with a standard deviation of 0.065 hPa. New estimates of the total mass of the atmosphere and its dry component, and their corresponding surface pressures, are larger than previous estimates owing to new topography of the earth’s surface that is 5.5 m lower for the global mean. Global mean total surface pressure is 985.50 hPa, 0.9 hPa higher than previous best estimates. The total mean mass of the atmosphere is 5.1480 × 1018 kg with an annual range due to water vapor of 1.2 or 1.5 × 1015 kg depending on whether surface pressure or water vapor data are used; this is somewhat smaller than the previous estimate. The mean mass of water vapor is estimated as 1.27 × 1016 kg and the dry air mass as 5.1352 ± 0.0003 × 1018 kg. The water vapor contribution varies with an annual cycle of 0.29-hPa, a maximum in July of 2.62 hPa, and a minimum in December of 2.33 hPa, although the total global surface pressure has a slightly smaller range. During the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events, water vapor amounts and thus total mass increased by about 0.1 hPa in surface pressure or 0.5 × 1015 kg for several months. Some evidence exists for slight decreases following the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and also for upward trends associated with increasing global mean temperatures, but uncertainties due to the changing observing system compromise the evidence. The physical constraint of conservation of dry air mass is violated in the reanalyses with increasing magnitude prior to the assimilation of satellite data in both ERA-40 and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses. The problem areas are shown to occur especially over the Southern Oceans. Substantial spurious changes are also found in surface pressures due to water vapor, especially in the Tropics and subtropics prior to 1979.
Published as an Atmospheric Science Paper March 31, 2005 and November 5, 1993 on title page. The Southern Oscillation has been shown in previous research to cause changes in the weather patterns over the continental United States. These changes, caused by either the warm El Nino or cold La Nina, could potentially effect numbers, locations, and strengths of tornadoes in the United States. Using a variation of the Southern Oscillation Index, the seven strongest El Nino and five strongest La Nina events during the period 1953-1989 were examined to see what effect, if any, that they would have on:
This study examines the influence of large-scale climatic phenomena-sunspot activity (SSN) and the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), represented by the Southern oscillation index (SOI) on precipitation, temperature, and dew point patterns in Gilan province, Iran. Using wavelet signal analysis, including continuous wavelet transforms (CWT), cross-wavelet transforms (XWT), wavelet coherence (WTC), and time-lag correlation analysis (TLCA), the research investigates temporal and frequency-domain relationships between these factors and regional climatic variables. A 73-year dataset (1951-2023) reveals cyclical patterns in SSN and SOI, correlating with significant 10-year periodicities in precipitation trends. The study further reveals ENSO and SSN's influence on long-term temperature and dew point fluctuations. While sunspot activity and ENSO both modulate climate variability, the study's scope is limited to Gilan province and excludes other atmospheric drivers or anthropogenic influences, which may also affect local hydrology. The findings suggest integrating solar and climatic indices into predictive models could improve long-term climate forecasts, supporting water resource management in this climate-sensitive region. This research provides novel insights for policymakers to address water-related challenges amid climatic variability by applying advanced wavelet methods to analyze multi-decadal interactions.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) consists of a convective region that propagates eastward in the tropics on repeat every 30-90 days with peak amplitude during the Boreal Winter (November - March). Since the MJO modulates extreme weather such as tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and monsoon variability, future MJO changes in a warmer climate have implications for prediction of extreme events. Understanding precipitation pattern changes in a changing climate is critical for fresh-water resources and societal planning for oceanic regions. Decadal variability in the climate system causes p
Abstract Spatiotemporal changes in six precipitation and five temperature extreme indices of Bangladesh and their linkage with nine ocean-atmospheric oscillation indices have been evaluated in this study to provide necessary information for adaptation planning and development of early warning systems. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation for the period 1980–2017 recorded at 20 stations, homogeneously distributed over the country, were employed for this purpose. Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used to evaluate trends in weather extremes, and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was employed to anticipate the possible continuation of existing trends in the future. The cross-wavelet transform (CWT) was used to evaluate the linkage of weather extremes with oscillation indices in the time-frequency domain. The results indicate an increase in hot extremes and a decrease in cool indices in Bangladesh. An increase in the continuous dry day (CDD) and one-day maximum precipitation (RX1day) was also observed, indicating gradual drying and more susceptibility to flash floods at the same time. DFA revealed the possible continuation of existing trends in temperature and precipitation indices. Almost all the climatic extreme indices of Bangladesh were found to follow periodic cycles with different frequencies. The hot extremes were significantly associated with five out of nine oscillation indices, including Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillatio
contributed to atmospheric changes, such as climate change (mainly through deforestation and fossil-fuel–related global warming), ozone depletion and acid deposition
The atmosphere of Earth consists of a layer of mixed gas (commonly referred to as air) that is retained by gravity, surrounding the Earth's surface. It contains variable quantities of suspended aerosols and particulates that create weather features such as clouds and hazes. The atmosphere serves as a protective buffer between the Earth's surface and outer space. It shields the surface from most me
Atmospheric circulation is the large-scale movement of air through the troposphere, and the means (with ocean circulation) by which heat is distributed around Earth. The large-scale structure of the atmospheric circulation varies from year to year, but the basic structure remains fairly constant because it is determined by Earth's rotation rate and the difference in solar radiation between the equator and poles. The axial tilt of the planet means the location of maximum heat is continually changing, resulting in seasonal variations. The uneven distribution of land and water further breaks up the flow of air.
The flow of air around the planet is divided into three main convection cells by latitude. Around the equator, the Hadley cell is driven by the rising flow of air along the equator. In the upper atmosphere, this air flows toward the poles. At mid latitudes, this circulation is reversed, with ground air flowing toward the poles with the Ferrel cell. Finally, in the high latitudes is the Polar cell, where air again rises and flows toward the poles.
The interface between these cells is responsible for jet streams. These are narrow, fast moving bands that flow from west to east and typically form at an elevation of around 9,100 m (30,000 ft). Jet streams can shift around depending on conditions. They are strongest in winter, when the boundaries between hot and cold air are the most pronounced. In the middle latitudes, it is instabilities in the jet streams that are responsible for moving weather systems.
As with the oceans, the Earth's atmosphere is subject to waves and tidal forces. These are triggered by non-uniform heating by the Sun, and by the daily solar cycle, respectively. Wave-like behavior can occur on a variety of scales, from smaller gravity waves that transfer momentum into the higher atmospheric layers, to much larger planetary waves, or Rossby waves. Atmospheric tides are periodic oscillations of the troposphere and stratosphere that transport energy to the upper atmosphere.
Abstract A feed‐back relationship, at least in the statistical mean, between Atlantic sea surface temperatures on the one hand and monthly atmospheric circulation anomalies on the other hand, is demonstrated for the north‐east Atlantic and western Europe. The key area in the Atlantic is a wide area south of Newfoundland; colder than usual ocean surfaces in this area are shown to be associated with blocked atmospheric patterns the following month over northern and western Europe while a warmer than usual ocean in the same general area favours more progressive synoptic types to follow. Month to month changes in this general relationship are described in some detail and the application to long‐range forecasting in the British Isles is discussed. One other pattern of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly is also described and associated with atmospheric circulation patterns to follow. Possible inter‐relationship between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans in respect of the effects of ocean surface temperatures on circulation patterns is also briefly considered.
Everything we examined (7) — 6 independent sources
This check searched the claim as stated. It did not run a separate search for evidence against it.