Thermodynamic equations accurately predict contrail formation based on atmospheric humidity and temperature
Thermodynamic equations, specifically embodied in the Schmidt–Appleman criterion using atmospheric temperature and humidity, are standard and accurate tools for predicting aircraft contrail formation.
The claim is specific, empirical, and falsifiable. Multiple peer-reviewed studies (e.g., Papers 2, 4, 5, 7, and 10) explicitly confirm that thermodynamic equations—namely the Schmidt–Appleman criterion relying on temperature and humidity—are the foundational and accurate method used to predict contrail formation. There are no refuting papers.
Kevin Wolf, N. Bellouin, O. Boucher, S. Rohs, Yun Li. Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis. 2025. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025
Paper 2 demonstrates that contrail formation is routinely estimated using thermodynamic principles via the Schmidt–Appleman criterion combined with temperature and relative humidity data.
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Jade Low, Roger Teoh, Joel Ponsonby, E. Gryspeerdt, Marc L Shapiro, Marc E. J. Stettler. Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations. 2025. https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-37-2025
Paper 4 confirms that contrail prediction models grounded in thermodynamic thresholds correctly predict contrail formation for the vast majority of flight waypoints.
Kevin Wolf, N. Bellouin, Olivier Boucher. Distribution and morphology of non-persistent contrail and persistent contrail formation areas in ERA5. 2024. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024
Paper 5 applies the Schmidt–Appleman criterion based solely on thermodynamic effects of temperature and relative humidity to successfully map contrail formation regions.
Edward S. Richardson. Contrail Formation Criterion for Assessment of Alternative Propulsion Technologies. 2025. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.b39430
Paper 7 applies the thermodynamic Schmidt–Appleman theory rigorously to evaluate contrail propensity across various propulsion technologies and alternative fuels.
Julian Callard, Christian Klumpp, Daniel Weintraub, Stefan Henninger, Peter Jeschke. Reducing contrail formation by engine design and operating point adaptation of aircraft engines. 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13272-025-00887-2
Paper 10 uses the Schmidt–Appleman thermodynamic criterion to evaluate how engine design modifications and operating conditions shift the critical thresholds for contrail formation.
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