Thermodynamic equations accurately predict contrail formation based on atmospheric humidity and temperature
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 84/100
Thermodynamic equations, specifically embodied in the Schmidt–Appleman criterion using atmospheric temperature and humidity, are standard and accurate tools for predicting aircraft contrail formation.
Evidence for · 5
Correction of ERA5 temperature and relative humidity biases by bivariate quantile mapping for contrail formation analysis
2025 · cited by 27
Paper 2 demonstrates that contrail formation is routinely estimated using thermodynamic principles via the Schmidt–Appleman criterion combined with temperature and relative humidity data.
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More for · 4
Ground-based contrail observations: comparisons with reanalysis weather data and contrail model simulations
2025 · cited by 15
Paper 4 confirms that contrail prediction models grounded in thermodynamic thresholds correctly predict contrail formation for the vast majority of flight waypoints.
Distribution and morphology of non-persistent contrail and persistent contrail formation areas in ERA5
2024 · cited by 12
Paper 5 applies the Schmidt–Appleman criterion based solely on thermodynamic effects of temperature and relative humidity to successfully map contrail formation regions.
Contrail Formation Criterion for Assessment of Alternative Propulsion Technologies
2025 · cited by 5
Paper 7 applies the thermodynamic Schmidt–Appleman theory rigorously to evaluate contrail propensity across various propulsion technologies and alternative fuels.
Reducing contrail formation by engine design and operating point adaptation of aircraft engines
2025 · cited by 1
Paper 10 uses the Schmidt–Appleman thermodynamic criterion to evaluate how engine design modifications and operating conditions shift the critical thresholds for contrail formation.