There is a strong correlation between earthquake magnitude and observed rock deformation
the verdict
INSUFFICIENT LEANING
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
3 sources for · 0 against
Retrieved studies indicate partial or specific links between seismic activity and aspects of rock or slope deformation, but do not comprehensively establish a general strong correlation across all contexts.
Abstract. The 2006 Mb = 5.3 Manyas-Kus Golu (Manyas) earthquake has been retrospectively "stress-forecasted" using variations in time-delays of seismic shear wave splitting to evaluate the time and magnitude at which stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the stressed volume where strain is released. We processed micro earthquakes recorded by 29 TURDEP (Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Research in High Risk Regions of Turkey) and 33 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) stations in the Marmara region by using the aspect-ratio cross-correlation and systematic analysis of crustal anisotropy methods. The aim of the analysis is to determine changes in delay-times, hence changes in stress, before and after the 2006 Manyas earthquake. We observed that clear decreases in delay times before the impending event, especially at the station GEMT are consistent with the anisotropic poro-elasticity (APE) model of fluid-rock deformation, but we could not observe similar changes at other stations surrounding the main event. The logarithms of the duration of the stress-accumulation are proportional (self-similar) to the magnitude of the impending event. Although time and magnitude of th 2005 Manyas earthquake could have been stress-forecasted, as has been recognized elsewhere, shear-wave splitting does not appear to provide direct information about the location of impending earthquakes.
The aim of the analysis is to determine changes in delay-times, hence changes in stress, before and after the 2006 Manyas earthquake. We observed that clear decreases in delay times before the impending event, espe- cially at the station GEMT are consistent with the anisotropic poro-elasticity (APE) model of fluid-rock deformation, but we could not observe similar changes at other stations sur- rounding the main event. The logarithms of the duration of the stress-accumulation are proportional (self-similar) to the magnitude of the impending event.
However, the methods of probabilistic earthquake forecasting are improving in reliability and skill, and they can provide time-dependent hazard information potentially use- ful in reducing earthquake losses and enhancing community preparedness and resilience (Jordan et al., 2011). Particularly the fluid-rock deformation based on stress accumulation be-
(1999) clearly indicated that when changes were recog- nized early enough, the time, magnitude, and fault break of an M = 5 earthquake in southwest Iceland were successfully stress-forecasted in a narrow time-magnitude window. To explain the relationship between variations in splitting parameters and low-level (pre-fracturing) deformation, the anisotropic poro-elasticity (APE) model was suggested by Zatsepin and Crampin (1997). This model is based on rock mass deformation with the fundamental assumption that the cracks in the crust are so closely spaced. Moreover, Crampin et al.
This study is a good example of stress-forecast before earthquakes because we obviously observed the character- istic changes in shear-wave splitting that stress-forecast ret- rospectively the time and magnitude of the 2006, Mb = 5.3 Manyas Earthquake. 2 Tectonic setting of the study Throughout history, the western extension of the North Ana- tolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) crossing in the Marmara Sea re- gion has been the site of many large and destructive earth- quakes (Ambraseys and Zatopek, 1969; Karabulut et al., 2003).
7a, b). We also examined the relationship between magnitude and time (julday) be- cause we expected variations in magnitude would be related to time and stress accumulation relative to the fault system (Fig. 7c). However, we observed that magnitudes of nearly all events are slightly less than 3 during 1 yr (Fig. 7c). It means that magnitude of the earthquakes could not be re- markably changed before and after the 2006 Manyas EQ. Most of the micro earthquakes occurred at shallow depths from May 2006 to August 2006 between 27.8 ◦–29.3◦ lon- gitude and 40 ◦–40.7◦ latitude. Continuous well-distributed seismic activity was observed during one year-2006 (Fig. 7a, b, c).
The earthquake swarm was paraticularly strong during May-2006 (Fig. 3). Time-delays in Band 1 at YLVX station suddenly decreased nearly on May-2006 (Fig. 8a). However, in the meantime, there is remarkable increase in time-delays in Band-2 at YLVX station between mid-July and mid-August, 2006 (Fig. 8a). In accordance with mea- surements from 1 January 2006 to 20 October 2006, scatter in time-delays is clearly observed at YLVX (Fig. 8a). Further, depth range from 0 to 25 km, the number of earth- quakes, also gradually increased from January 2006 to 20 October 2006 (Fig. 7b). This might be related to stress ac- cumulations before the 2006 Manyas-Kus Golu earthquake.
(a) Distribution of micro events in longitude and latitude versus julday. Micro earthquakes are depicted by red dots. The main event is marked blue. (b) Distribution of micro events in longitude and latitude versus depth. Micro earthquakes and the main even are depicted by red dots and blue circle respectively (c) Analysis of the relationship between magnitude and julday. www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1073/2012/ Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1073– 1084, 2012 1080 G.
In particular, the region of the Marmara Sea is a transi- tion zone between the strike slip regime of the NAFZ and the extension regime of the Aegean Sea (Taymaz, et al., 2004). After the main earthquake, we observed an obvious in- crease in delay time at GEMT Station and seismic activ- ity at the surrounding area that were very strong (Fig. 10). Increases in time delays of shear wave splitting monitoring stress accumulation before earthquakes are also not precur- sory to earthquakes. Finally, considering variations in splitting parameters be- fore and after the main earthquake, it is very hard to conclude that the location of the forecast earthquake can be forecasted (Jordan et al., 2011).
Hydrogeochemical precursors of the earthquakes (HGCP) in changes of ion-salt and gas composition of underground waters from self-discharging wells and springs on the territory of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky testsite, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia and Tashkent testsite, Republic of Uzbekistan are considered. There has been analyzed the connection of HGCP with parameters of earthquakes — with correlation between magnitudes and epicentral distances, as well as with values of specific density of seismic energy in the wave, intensity of ground shaking and other parameters of earthquake impact in the regions of observation. In Kamchatka wells HGCP were revealed before the earthquakes with Mw = 6.5 to 7.8 at epicentral distances de = 100 to 310 km at relatively narrow ranges of values of seismic energy density in the wave (0.1 to 0.3 J/m3), volumetric coseismic deformation of water-containing rocks (one to tens 10-9) and maximal velocities of seismic waves (3.5–7.7 cm/sec). HGCP took place in the zones with intensity of the earthquakes not less than 4 to 6 by MSK-64 scale and were confined to the intermediate zones of sources of future earthquakes. Duration of HGCP development and their appearance before the following earthquakes amount to 1 to 9 months, which allows using such precursors for prediction of time of strong earthquakes.
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The Xinmo landslide, a catastrophic event that claimed 10 lives and left 73 people missing, occurred in an active tectonic zone on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Although it is widely recognized that multiple earthquakes in the region have historically inflicted severe damage on the slope, there has been a lack of quantitative investigation into the slope's deformation and damage processes under repeated seismic events. In this study, we examined the response, deformation, and fracture processes of the Xinmo slope under multiple earthquakes through a series of numerical simulations. Our findings reveal that repeated earthquakes cause an amplification of slope acceleration, strain, and stress amplitudes, leading to the progressive accumulation of deformation and cracking in slopes at increasingly faster rates. The observed stress amplification in the phyllite layer, attributed to incompatible deformation, significantly contributes to the intensive development of seismic cracks. Additionally, the incremental damage and deformation caused by each earthquake are strongly influenced by pre-existing damage. The accumulation of earthquake-induced residual stresses in locked segment is a major factor in accelerating its buckling deformation. This study emphasizes the importance of incorporating earthquake-induced cumulative damage into landslide stability and hazard assessments.
The Xinmo landslide, a catastrophic event that claimed 10 lives and left 73 people missing, occurred in an active tectonic zone on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Although it is widely recognized that multiple earthquakes in the region have historically inflicted severe damage on the slope, there has been a lack of quantitative investigation into the slope’s deformation and damage processes under repeated seismic events. In this study, we examined the response, deformation, and fracture processes of the Xinmo slope under multiple earthquakes through a series of numerical simulations.
This assessment stemmed from post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis conducted on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images obtained by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from October 9, 2014, to June 19, 2017. The velocity measurements in this area ranged between − 10 and − 20 mm/year, with peaks reaching about − 27 mm/year. The deformation of the landslide is typically influenced by geological factors, as well as internal and external triggers such as earthquakes, tectonic activity, seasonal rainfall, and changes in reservoir water levels, among others 31 – 35 .
Severe earthquakes can induce slope deformation and impact stability by promoting the formation of cracks in the rock mass. Increased damage to the rock mass following earthquakes is a crucial factor in understanding landslide events at regional and global scales, often leading to decreased frictional resistance and material strength, thereby reducing landslide stability. Fig. 7 Pre-event ground deformation map for the Xinmo landslide 30 . To assess the effect of earthquakes on the progressive deformation of the Xinmo slope, correlation analyses were conducted between historical earthquakes with a magnitude of Ms 4.0 or higher, and time-series deformation and deformation rates.
Subsequently, after February 2017, the slope transitioned to the accelerated deformation stage, marked by a gradual increase in deformation rate and accelerated accumulation of deformation. Fig. 8 Correlation analysis between deformation rate, time series deformation, earthquake of the Xinmo landslide for Point 1, 2 and 3 marked in Fig. 7 30 . (2) Frequent seismic activity emerges as the primary driving force behind slope deformation accumulation. The occurrence of 99 earthquakes with a magnitude of Ms 4.0 or higher within 200 km of the landslide area post-June 10, 2014, suggests a strong correlation between deformation accumulation and seismic activity.
Based on the temporal patterns of earthquakes, deformation, and deformation rates, it is conceivable that the earthquake with a magnitude of Ms 5.9 in November 2014 may have served as the impetus for the transition from the initial deformation stage to the uniform deformation stage. Discrete element numerical simulation Simulation preparation Based on the detailed geological investigation, a numerical model of the Xinmo landslide is constructed, and the heights of the right and left sides of the model are 48.8 m and 390 m, respectively.
The maximum wave frequency allowed by the model grid size is obtained through the following equation: 10 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
The vertical deformation caused by the multiple earthquakes at the location of the locking section is the smallest, and the vertical deformation at the other monitoring points is basically the same. There is a large horizontal deformation at the locations with low elevations and near the outside of the model within the landslide area. Each earthquake causes an incremental deformation in the model, and the incremental deformation increases nonlinearly as increasing number of earthquakes. The cumulative deformation of the model under different earthquake sequences is shown in Fig.
19 a, the rock layer profile approximately 300 m west of the Xinmo landslide area reveals dense seismic cracks in the phyllite layer, contrasting with the relative absence of cracks in the metamorphic sandstone. This confirms severe seismic damage due to incompatible deformation. The presence of remaining phyllite on the sliding bed further supports the conclusion that the landslide initiated in the phyllite layer (Fig. 19 b). Similar extensive seismic crack development in weak layers following earthquakes was observed in the Sanxicun Landslide 14 and the Daguangbao Landslide 8 .
Furthermore, despite having the same magnitude and sequence, subsequent earthquakes induce greater incremental deformation. This amplification is attributed to pre-existing deformation. Fig.
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