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the claim
The Yellowstone supervolcano will not experience a catastrophic explosive eruption in the near future
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 85/100

Current geophysical and statistical analyses of large silicic systems indicate that while the Yellowstone supervolcano possesses a vast magmatic storage network, the statistical probability of a catastrophic explosive eruption in the near future remains extremely low.

Evidence for · 2
Volcanology. The Yellowstone magmatic system from the mantle plume to the upper crust.
2015 · cited by 36
Paper 2 provides a comprehensive geophysical characterization of the Yellowstone magmatic system, outlining its massive lower-crustal and upper-crustal reservoirs which helps constrain baseline dynamics and long-term evolutionary models rather than indicating an imminent catastrophic event.
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More for · 1
Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis
2023 · cited by 4
Paper 6 establishes through rigorous stochastic probability analysis on large silicic systems that the likelihood of a catastrophic caldera-forming super-eruption in the near future is vanishingly small (infinitesimal annual probability).
The paper trail · every fact has a biography
first checked02 Aug 2026
judged → SUPPORTED · 8502 Aug 2026
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