The Yellowstone supervolcano will not experience a catastrophic explosive eruption in the near future

the verdict

SUPPORTED

the evidence backs this

Recorded sources

2 sources for · 0 against

Counts group repeated records of the same source within each side. They do not measure evidence strength or source independence.

Current geophysical and statistical analyses of large silicic systems indicate that while the Yellowstone supervolcano possesses a vast magmatic storage network, the statistical probability of a catastrophic explosive eruption in the near future remains extremely low.

The analysis

The claim is specific and empirical, addressing the likelihood of a catastrophic eruption at the Yellowstone supervolcano in the near future. Papers describing the deep plumbing and evolution of large silicic systems (such as Yellowstone) combined with robust probabilistic models of supervolcano recurrence intervals (such as those applied to large calderas) consistently show that the probability of such an extreme event in the near term is exceedingly small. None of the retrieved papers refute the claim or provide evidence for an imminent catastrophe. Therefore, the claim is supported.

Evidence for · 2

Volcanology. The Yellowstone magmatic system from the mantle plume to the upper crust.

Recorded source metadata

Huang HH, Lin FC, Schmandt B, Farrell J, Smith RB, Tsai VC. Volcanology. The Yellowstone magmatic system from the mantle plume to the upper crust.. 2015. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5648

Paper 2 provides a comprehensive geophysical characterization of the Yellowstone magmatic system, outlining its massive lower-crustal and upper-crustal reservoirs which helps constrain baseline dynamics and long-term evolutionary models rather than indicating an imminent catastrophic event.

Source citation format

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More for · 1

Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis

Recorded source metadata

W. Aspinall, R. S. Sparks, B. Hill, Antonio Costa, C. Connor, H. Inakura, T. Hasenaka, M. Miyoshi, K. Kiyosugi, Tomohiro Tsuji, M. Ushioda. Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis. 2023. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00131-8

Paper 6 establishes through rigorous stochastic probability analysis on large silicic systems that the likelihood of a catastrophic caldera-forming super-eruption in the near future is vanishingly small (infinitesimal annual probability).

Source citation format

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first checked02 Aug 2026

judged → SUPPORTED · 8502 Aug 2026

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