trustme.bro/r/…
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the claim
The United States stock market tends to rise following major natural disasters.
the verdict
REFUTED
the evidence says no
confidence 7/100

Empirical evidence indicates that major natural disasters do not cause the stock market to rise; rather, studies consistently find that extreme weather events and natural disasters either depress stock returns or have no statistically significant positive impact.

Evidence against · 3
Investigating the Effects of Natural Disasters on the Stock Market on a Sectoral Basis: The Case of 2023 Kahramanmaraş/Türkiye Earthquake
2023 · cited by 11
This study finds no statistically significant difference in stock returns before and after major earthquakes, showing that disasters do not systematically cause markets to rise.
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More against · 2
Physical climate risk: Stock price reactions to the historically most extreme European and United States heat waves since 1979.
2025 · cited by 1
This research shows that extreme heat waves reduce stock values rather than boosting them, leading to portfolio declines of up to 3.1%.
Chinese Stock Market Performance and Natural Disasters
2025 · cited by 1
This study highlights a negative association between natural disasters and stock market returns, demonstrating that disasters reduce company stock performance.
The paper trail · every fact has a biography
first checked01 Aug 2026
judged → REFUTED · 701 Aug 2026
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