The rate of decrease in antibody production correlates with long-term immunity
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Retrieved evidence sources conflict, with some studies suggesting waning immunity is linked to infection or vaccine breakthrough while other sources note mechanisms of protection or distinct dynamics, showing that the relationship between antibody decrease and long-term immunity is not uniform.
BACKGROUNDMonkeypox virus (MPXV) has spread globally to non-endemic countries in recent years and has the potential to cause recurrent outbreaks. Vaccine breakthrough infections and reinfections are suggested to be linked to immunity waning over time.AIMWe aimed to determine how long individuals remain protected following MPXV infection and if vaccination can be used as a public heath measure to elicit durable protective immune responses.METHODSThis retrospective observational study investigated the durability of humoral immune responses in a longitudinal cohort of 46 individuals infected with MPXV during the 2022 global mpox outbreak. We collected 86 blood samples up to 7 months after infection, and analysed the antibody responses against MPXV with a serological assay using a panel of eight viral antigens.RESULTSMonitoring of antibody kinetics revealed transient IgM responses in the first weeks following infection and a robust polyclonal IgG response that peaked 1-2 months after infection but declined consistently in the following months. Post-exposure immunisation with third-generation modified Vaccinia Ankara-Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) vaccine did not seem to increase significantly the strength, breadth or longevity of antibody responses. Using a separate cohort of 25 uninfected long-term MVA-BN vaccinees, we observed low to undetectable seropositivity against most MPXV antigens after 30 months.CONCLUSIONAs circulating antibody titres have been identified as a correlate of protection against mpox, declining antibody levels raise concerns for mpox susceptibility in previously infected and vaccinated persons. This warrants further evaluation of long-term vaccine effectiveness to inform booster vaccination guidance.
CONCLUSION As circulating antibody titres have been identified as a correlate of protection against mpox, declining antibody levels raise concerns for mpox susceptibility in previously infected and vaccinated persons. This warrants further evaluation of long-term vaccine effectiveness to inform booster vaccination guidance.
Future studies need to assess immunity and long-term protection in individuals receiving booster doses of the MVA-BN vaccine compared with the standard two-dose regimen. Introduction Monkeypox virus (MPXV, genus Orthopoxvirus , family Poxviridae ) is an emerging and re-emerging zoonotic viral pathogen responsible for the mpox disease. Mpox is characterised by multiple clinical symptoms including fever, lymphadenopathy and distinctive skin rashes [ 1 ]. It presents clinical similarities with the closely related variola virus (VARV) which causes smallpox disease, although mpox generally has milder symptoms and lower case-fatality rates [ 1 ].
However, recent reports suggest that the humoral immunity elicited by natural infection with MPXV and current OPXV vaccines tend to decrease over time, which, if humoral immunity is a good predictor of protection, could lead to an increase in susceptibility to MPXV infection and a concomitant decrease in vaccine
Strikingly, we observed that A35 and B6 IgG had a half-life of 288 days, more than twice the longevity of A27 IgG (118 days) and E13 IgG (110 days), and substantially superior to E8 IgG (169 days) ( Figure 5F ). Altogether, our results suggest that humoral immunity against MPXV infection is waning over time. Humoral responses in MVA-BN vaccinees during long-term follow-up To get a better understanding of the longevity of the cross-reactive antibody responses elicited by OPXV vaccination, we used serological samples obtained from a small cross-sectional cohort of OPXV vaccinees with risk of occupational exposure to MPXV ( Table ).
Of note, one participant who had previously received one dose of ACAM2000 and one dose of MVA-BN (depicted as a triangle symbol) was shown to have far superior MPXV IgG responses compared with the other 30 months vaccinees, including seroreactivity to the A27 antigen ( Figures 2C–F , Figure 6 ). This is consistent with the antibody responses observed with other ACAM2000 vaccinees (Figure 1A). In brief, the cross-reactive antibody responses elicited by OPXV vaccination decrease over time in a similar fashion as MPXV-induced immunity.
Figure 6 Seropositivity rate in long-term MVA-BN vaccinees, Canada, 2020–2023 (n = 25 sera) Nine graphs showing antibodies decline over time following mpox vaccination. AUC: area under the curve; Ig: immunoglobulin; MPXV: monkeypox virus. Indirect ELISA was performed using recombinant MPXV proteins (A) A35, (B) B6, (C) A35 and B6 (D) A27, (E) E8, (F) A29, (G) H3, (H) M1 and (I) E13, incubated with 15 naïve sera and 25 vaccinated sera collected at 5 months (5mo) or 30 months (30mo) post vaccination. MPXV antibody binding was detected using HRP-conjugated anti-human IgG. The specific binding values are shown as AUC. Error bars indicate median values ± 95% confidence intervals.
The current observational study sheds light on the decay of MPXV humoral immunity in confirmed mpox cases and MVA-BN vaccinees, several months after infection or vaccination. Here we show that serum antibodies from a cohort of 46 MPXV-infected individuals are waning at a constant rate during the convalescent phase of the infection, despite an early robust polyclonal antibody response. More importantly, we observed MPXV antibody waning in longitudinal samples from 28 infected individuals with or without MVA-BN post-exposure vaccination.
A report in 2024 has noted limited vaccine breakthrough infections among fully vaccinated individuals (< 1%) [ 20 ], and by March 2026, there have been no booster vaccination recommendations by WHO and other public health organisations, except for laboratory workers at high risk of occupational exposure 2 years after a primary series [ 28 ]. Should monitoring detect increasing rates of breakthrough infections that correlate with antibody losses as observed here, vaccine recommendations may need to be revised to include MVA-BN booster doses.
Malnutrition and humoral immunity: long-term protein deprivation.
The effect of long-term protein deprivation and refeeding on delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) and humoral immune function was investigated in rats. Animals previously sensitized to keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH) were placed on a 2% protein diet ad lib for 8 weeks, after which some groups of animals were refed for up to 4 weeks. Control rats received normal rat chow. Recall skin testing with KLH, and immunization with tetanus toxoid (TT) were used to assess DTH and humoral immune responses. Weight, DTH, and antibody responses declined progressively with protein deprivation. Refeeding restored skin test responses and humoral immunity. There was a direct correlation between degree of malnutrition as reflected by weight and antibody responses as well as between DTH and antibody responses. The data demonstrate that chronic protein deprivation modulates both DTH skin testing and humoral immune responses and show that under conditions of altered immune function, there is a correlation between DTH responses and humoral immune function.
Published in The Journal of surgical research (1986)
Current licensed influenza vaccines primarily protect by eliciting antibodies against the viral hemagglutinin (HA) glycoprotein, thereby blocking viral attachment and fusion with host cells. Unlike most vaccines, influenza vaccines must be administered annually because circulating viruses undergo continuous antigenic drift and population antibody titers wane over time. Despite yearly reformulation, influenza vaccine effectiveness remains highly variable, often below 45%, largely due to antigenic mismatches. These mismatches arise from ongoing HA evolution following strain selection and from egg-adaptation during production or propagation in animal cell cultures, which can alter key HA epitopes relative to circulating strains. Even when an antigenic match is favorable, repeated annual vaccination may elicit immunological phenomena that attenuate protective responses. Serial vaccination in young and older adults can increase regulatory T-cell activation, reducing vaccine-induced antibody titers. In older adults, this may be compounded by age-associated CD4+ T-cell memory populations that have reduced capacity to activate HA-specific B cells. While natural influenza infection induces durable memory B cells, conventional vaccination does not reliably generate such long-lived memory, suggesting a fundamental limitation of current vaccine platforms. Collectively, these observations underscore the need to re-evaluate influenza vaccination strategies, particularly to improve protection in high-risk groups such as older adults. Reducing antigenic mismatch remains essential and can be facilitated by improving the vaccine selection process and expanding the use of recombinant protein and mRNA vaccine production platforms that do not rely on egg- or animal-cell culture technologies. In parallel, the rational selection and development of adjuvants that minimize T-regulatory cell induction while enhancing durable memory B-cell formation and long-lived plasma cells may help overco
A few plasma cells exit lymph nodes and/or spleen and migrate to the bone marrow, for long-term memory (years to decades). On leaving GC, some B cells, instead of differentiating into antibody-secreting plasma cells, differentiate into memory B cells that transiently migrate through the blood toward the extrafollicular areas of spleen and lymph nodes. These memory cells persist there as resting cells until re-exposed to their specific antigens.
In essence, Tfh and Tfr cells form a balanced system in the GC, where Tfh cells provide “help” and Tfr cells provide “control, “ ensuring a high-affinity yet regulated antibody response. Created in BioRender. Gupta, R. (2026) https://BioRender.com/085abl7 . Infographic illustrating the immune response to vaccination, including antigen recognition, B cell activation, clonal proliferation, plasma and memory B cell formation, and the role of boosters in rapid antibody production and long-term immunity.
Over time, antibody levels decline, sometimes falling below the estimated protective levels, likely due to a reduction in memory B cells and plasma cells. The protective levels of circulating antibodies are unknown for most diseases. Despite low circulating antibody levels for extended periods, most vaccines provide long-term or lifelong protection without the need for booster doses, except for toxin-mediated diseases such as tetanus and diphtheria. Protection against most diseases is not necessarily achieved by maintaining high circulating antibody levels.
Emerging evidence from immunization models further indicates that the magnitude and timing of the Tfr response critically shape vaccine-induced humoral immunity, such that early or excessive engagement, such as repeated immunization of this regulatory axis, can dampen GC responses and reduce the magnitude and durability of antibody production ( 79 – 81 ). Collectively, these findings provide a mechanistic framework supporting the concept of vaccine “blunting, “ or “attenuated magnitude”, wherein heightened Tfr activity attenuates the breadth, magnitude, and persistence of antigen-specific antibody responses.
As discussed in section 4.5, repeated annual vaccination generates Tregs, specifically Tfr cells, in all age groups ( 39 , 82 ) and CD4+ memory T cells in the elderly, which can diminish protective antibody responses ( 40 ). These cells can suppress the immune system’s ability to fight off influenza infections, affecting both humoral and cellular responses, including the failure to elicit memory B cells, which are primarily responsible for the long-term protection provided by vaccines. Moritzky et al. ( 83 ) observed a negative association between preexisting HA-specific antibodies and postvaccination antibody levels.
There are numerous scientific reports on the reduction in influenza vaccine effectiveness after repeated vaccinations ( 49 , 120 – 122 , 129 – 159 ), starting with a 1970s vaccine trial in an English boarding school, which observed that infection rates were higher among boys vaccinated in the current and previous seasons than among those receiving their first vaccination ( 160 ). These observations from three outbreaks of influenza A in a school suggested that annual revaccination with inactivated influenza A vaccine confers no long-term advantage ( 160 ).
During the 2009 pandemic, it was noted that older people had lower rates of infection than the younger population due to historical cross-immunity to conserved antigens from prior H1N1 viral infections (which were common in the late 1970s); thus, their original antigenic exposure offered protection ( 63 – 65 ). Based on these observations, it may be inferred that immune memory to influenza infections is long-term, and that repeated vaccinations are not beneficial in protecting against emerging strains.
New vaccines comprising HA from potential circulating strains should be developed using recombinant protein expression systems and mRNA vaccine technology
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