The most extreme IPCC climate projections are based on implausible assumptions.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 86/100
Recent scientific literature supports the claim that the most extreme IPCC climate projections (such as RCP8.5) rely on increasingly implausible high-emission assumptions, though these scenarios are still sometimes used for risk assessment.
Evidence for · 3
Variability in historical emissions trends suggests a need for a wide range of global scenarios and regional analyses
2020 · cited by 51
Long-term emission trends track the middle of scenario ranges, making extreme high-emission scenarios increasingly unlikely.
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More for · 2
High radiative forcing climate scenario relevance analyzed with a ten-million-member ensemble
2024 · cited by 26
Probabilistic modeling shows extremely low probability for extreme forcing pathways like RCP8.5 by 2100, though they retain utility for long-term and risk assessments.
Climate change scenarios in fisheries and aquatic conservation research
2022 · cited by 16
Recent research indicates that high-emission scenarios such as RCP8.5 and SSP3-7.0 are implausible and should be used with clear caveats.