The legalisation of abortion resulted in lower crime rates decades later.
the verdict
CONTESTED
the evidence cuts both ways
confidence 31/100
The hypothesis that legalizing abortion leads to lower crime rates decades later remains heavily contested, with some researchers finding strong statistical support while others report that the association fails robustness checks and alternative tests.
Evidence for · 2
Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not
2004 · cited by 1,171
Paper 0 concludes that the legalization of abortion in the 1970s was one of the primary factors explaining the sharp drop in US crime rates in the 1990s.
Evidence against · 4
Why the Crime Drop?
2014 · cited by 249
Paper 2 examines multiple explanations for the crime drop and finds that the abortion hypothesis fails to pass standardized empirical tests compared to security hypotheses.
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More for · 1
The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime over the Last Two Decades
2020 · cited by 29
Paper 9 utilizes post-publication data and finds continued empirical support for the original Donohue and Levitt prediction that legalized abortion significantly reduced crime rates over subsequent decades.
More against · 3
Five tests for a theory of the crime drop
2013 · cited by 114
Paper 7 subjects the abortion-crime hypothesis to rigorous testing and reports that it fails multiple validity tests.
The Abortion–Crime Link: Evidence from England and Wales
2007 · cited by 25
Paper 10 tests the abortion-crime link using data from England and Wales and finds that the negative association breaks down under robustness checks and conviction data.
Further Tests of Abortion and Crime
2004 · cited by 21
Paper 11 finds little evidence for a causal relationship between legalized abortion and reduced crime when analyzing specific post-legalization cohort transitions and racial demographic differences.