The Gulf Stream is unstable and could stop suddenly.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
confidence 84/100
Multiple scientific studies and paleoclimatic records indicate that the Atlantic ocean circulation system is unstable, currently weakening, and faces a genuine risk of abrupt collapse under continued greenhouse gas forcing.
Evidence for · 6
Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation Approaching a Tipping Point?
2024 · cited by 26
The paper discusses tipping points and paleoclimatic data showing the Atlantic circulation has been unstable and prone to abrupt shifts in the past.
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More for · 5
Is the Atlantic Overturning Circulation approaching a tipping point?
2025 · cited by 16
It reviews ongoing weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and highlights the risk of abrupt circulation and climate shifts.
Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios.
2025 · cited by 0
This study demonstrates that internal atmospheric variability can push the AMOC across its stability threshold, triggering a collapse.
The effect of freshwater biases on AMOC stability across the model complexity spectrum
2025 · cited by 0
The authors suggest that current models may underestimate the probability of an AMOC collapse under future emission scenarios due to freshwater biases.
Recent and early 20th century destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic recorded in bivalves.
2025 · cited by 0
Reconstructions show recent destabilization of the subpolar North Atlantic, indicating the system is moving toward a tipping point.
The Tipping Points of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Warm and Cold Climates
2023 · cited by 0
General circulation model experiments show rapid reduction or full collapse of the AMOC in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases.