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the claim
The Credit-to-GDP gap measures the difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-term trend.
the verdict
SUPPORTED
the evidence backs this
refutedsupported
the weight of evidence
2 sources for · 0 against

The credit-to-gdp gap is defined and calculated as the deviation or difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its estimated long-term trend.

Evidence for · 2
On the Long-Run Calibration of the Credit-to-Gdp Gap as a Banking Crisis Predictor
2019 · cited by 13
The paper discusses the trend deviation of the Credit-to-GDP ratio (Basel gap) as calculated using filters to determine the difference between the ratio and its long-term trend.
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The analysis

The retrieved literature consistently defines the credit-to-GDP gap (often referred to as the Basel gap) as the deviation or difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-term trend.

More for · 1
Credit to GDP gap as an indicator for upcoming financial crisis
2017 · cited by 3
The paper notes that the gap between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-run trend is used as an indicator for economic frameworks like the countercyclical capital buffer.
Everything we examined (12)
We also searched for evidence AGAINST this claim, not only for it.
  1. Anticipating the Bust: A New Cyclical Systemic Risk Indicator to Assess the Likelihood and Severity of Financial Crisespeer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  2. On the Long-Run Calibration of the Credit-to-Gdp Gap as a Banking Crisis Predictorpeer-reviewedsupports
  3. Innovative governance for transformative energy policy in sub-Saharan Africa after COVID-19: Green pathways in Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  4. Credit to GDP gap as an indicator for upcoming financial crisispeer-reviewedsupports
  5. Indicator from the graph Laplacian of stock market time series cross-sections can precisely determine the durations of market crashes.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  6. Dynamic influence of financial structure, green innovation, urbanization, and trade on consumption-based CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in Asian countries.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  7. The double-edged effect of bank liquidity creation efficiency on systemic risk: Evidence from China.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  8. Design and Development of Machine learning based Enterprise financial crisis Early Warning Systempeer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  9. Finite-Length Spatiotemporal Modelling for Housing Price Network Spillovers.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  10. The effect of macroeconomic shocks on non-performing loans and credit risk in the iranian banking system using time-varying parameter vector autoregressions.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  11. Bond market opening, monetary policy, and systemic financial risks - An empirical study based on the TVP-SV-VAR model.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
  12. Climate change, natural resource conflicts and insecurity in Nigeria: implication for food security.peer-reviewedno side takennot shown: read and judged not to bear on this claim
The paper trail · every fact has a biography
first checked06 Aug 2026
judged → SUPPORTED · 7106 Aug 2026
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